2024 Election Odds On Polymarket, Kalshi Show Trump Will Win: Why They Might Be Wrong
As the 2024 presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump draws nearer, observers are looking for any clue to the ultimate winner. While polls have traditionally been the method of choice to forecast elections, polling misses in the 2016 and 2020 elections have led many to look toward alternatives.
Political betting markets, now legal in the United States, are widely discussed as another possible predictor of event outcomes. How accurate are they?
What Are Betting Markets? The premise of online prediction markets is simple: investors buy and sell futures on current event outcomes rather than on a physical asset. The most prominent prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, use cryptocurrency as a trading currency.
Thus, a trader profits if the event’s outcome resolves to their bet.
Kalshi — and now Robinhood — allow users in the U.S. to bet on the site; Polymarket is restricted solely to international users.
The 2024 Election: The Harris-Trump matchup could be the closest election in decades. Polling shows razor-thin margins in all seven swing states, though Trump has some momentum.
Polymarket bettors are more bullish on Trump. As of …
About The Author
