Nate Silver Says Kamala Harris ‘May Need Backup Plans’ If The ‘Blue Wal’ Is Split But Sees The Race As ‘A Near Coin Flip’
American statistician and writer Nate Silver on Friday described the 2024 U.S. presidential race is described as “a near coin flip,” with Donald Trump narrowly leading Kamala Harris.
What Happened: As of Oct. 31, Silver’s forecast gives Trump a slight edge with a 53.4% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 46.2%.
This tight margin highlights the intense polarization and competitive nature of this election, which remains too close to call as polling data continues to evolve in critical swing states.
Silver’s analysis of recent polls highlights shifting dynamics, particularly in Pennsylvania, where Trump now holds a 0.8-point lead in the polling average.
The Pennsylvania shift could force Harris to rethink her path to victory if she cannot reclaim the state. Silver notes that losing Pennsylvania would require Harris to rely on a “two-state parlay,” winning both Georgia or North Carolina alongside either Arizona or Nevada, which complicates her road to the White House. In SIlver’s words, the Vice President “may need backup plans” in case she …
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