Nate Silver’s Closest Call Yet: How 2024’s Election Stands Apart From His Predictions In 2016 And 2020
Posted On November 5, 2024
Well-known statistician Nate Silver, known for his close-call forecasts, has delivered his final prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential race: Kamala Harris holds an ultra-narrow lead over Donald Trump in a scenario that resembles a coin toss.
What Happened: According to Silver’s 80,000 simulation runs, Harris wins the Electoral College 50.015% of the time—a razor-thin margin.
“The odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50,” Silver stated, adding that Harris’s slight edge over Trump came down to just 12 simulations. “There are literally going to be people who say, ‘Nate Silver predicts a Harris win,’ as …
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