Gary Black Shares Polymarket Data, Says Trump Tariffs Have Pushed Odds Of 2025 Recession To 57%

Noted investment adviser Gary Black drew attention Sunday to the rising odds of a recession in 2025 due to President Donald Trump’s tariff measures.

What Happened: Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, highlighted the increasing likelihood of the U.S. slipping into recession this year on the decentralized betting platform, Polymarket.

“Trump’s tariffs have pushed the odds of recession to 57% as consumers and businesses cut back, up from 20% at the beginning of 2025, according to Polymarket,” he wrote on X.

Indeed, odds on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based platform sharply rose this month, coinciding with the sweeping tariff measures announced on the “Liberation Day” and the escalating trade war with China.

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