Recession Odds Upped By IMF To 40%, But Polymarket Traders See Less Likelihood As Stocks, Bitcoin Rally

Polymarket punters lowered the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 on Tuesday, even as the International Monetary Fund acknowledged that the risk of a slump has risen substantially.

What happened: The odds in favor of the betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” dipped 57% to 53% in the last 24 hours on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based prediction platform. The probability was 35% a month ago.

Meanwhile, $3.189 million has already been bet on the outcome. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National …

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