Navigating A Roller Coaster Market
We’re In A Bear Market, And Stocks Have Further To Fall
That’s been our basic thesis since early this month. Big market participants (such as Bill Ackman) thought Trump’s tariffs were a negotiating tack or a bluff. Ergo, the extent of them wasn’t priced in, and when it was, we would go lower.
Whether it makes sense to balance trade is a separate question. We think it does, as does Warren Buffett and as did the late Intel CEO, Andy Grove. But even if it’s a good policy, there is going to be a period of painful adjustment.
Trading That Thesis
It’s a bearish thesis, so we’ve mainly focused on adding short exposure, with some exceptions. If something looks cheap–and likely to appreciate, we go long. And we do so on a day when the market is down. We did just that last Monday, placing long term, bullish bets on two Bitcoin-related names.
We explained our logic there:
Why Bitcoin?
Because Bitcoin is starting to behave like its own asset class, instead of like a more volatile version of the Nasdaq. While the …
About The Author
