Recession Odds Reach All-Time High After Negative Q1 GDP Numbers, But Crypto Bettors Don’t See Emergency Rate Cut Anytime Soon
Posted On May 1, 2025
The odds that the U.S. slips into recession in 2025 sailed to a record high Wednesday on Polymarket after first-quarter GDP showed a contraction.
What happened: Odds jumped to 72% in the early hours on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based betting platform before dipping to 62% late in the evening.
People buy and sell outcome shares, i.e., “yes” and “no,” with those reflecting the correct, final outcome paying out $1 in USD Coin (CRYPTO: USDC) apiece upon market resolution.
In this case, the market will resolve to yes if the U.S. GDP contracts for two straight quarters or if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession before Jan. 1, 2026. Nearly …
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