The Bitcoin Halving Clock is Broken
The Bitcoin halving cycle once set the rhythm for the entire crypto space. Every four years, issuance fell, narrative swelled, and markets marched in near-lockstep toward long winters and blow-off tops. That script is now over. The halving clock is broken.
Cycles still exist, as human reflex and liquidity never sleep. Still, the tidy four-year cadence is broken now, and liquidity regimes, policy shocks, and overlapping sector narratives have replaced a single, subsidy-driven metronome.
Mechanical supply cuts mattered when the market was small and demand windows were narrow; however, today, a far larger audience can express their exposure through regulated wrappers. Pair this with model-driven allocations that shift on weekly timelines, and the picture begins to emerge more clearly.
Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the like have rocked the boat when it comes to halving patterns and expectations. This year, spot Ether ETFs clocked $5.4 billion in monthly inflows amid a 20-day streak, as large institutions have rotated their exposure within weeks in response to changing spreads and market volatility.
Flow regimes now dominate. Streaks of fund inflows and outflows — driven by rebalancing, basis trades, and volatility targeting — produce mini-cycles that can …
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