Aliens Are More Likely Than $200,000 Bitcoin In 2025, Polymarket Odds Say
Posted On October 19, 2025
Prediction market Polymarket now gives higher odds of confirmed alien existence this year than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reaching $200,000, a data quirk that’s sparking debate across crypto and prediction circles.
Polymarket Bets On Extraterrestrials Over Bitcoin
According to Polymarket data, traders assign a 6% probability that the United States confirms extraterrestrial life in 2025, versus just 5% odds that Bitcoin hits $200,000 before year-end.
In other words, the market currently believes an alien sighting is slightly more plausible than a doubling in Bitcoin’s price over the next ten weeks.
Polymarket’s “alien confirmation” contract has attracted nearly $4 million in trading volume, with prices trending lower since midyear.
It’s the only market where Elon Musk, Satoshi …
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