Whales Accumulate Millions in ADA as Bearish Momentum Persists, Can Cardano Repeat Its 60% Rally?

Cardano (ADA) slipped about 4% to $0.64, trading below the 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages ($0.735, $0.804, $0.741), a setup that keeps short- and medium-term pressure tilted lower. Even so, on-chain flow shows whales accumulating roughly 200 million ADA as developers push fresh upgrades.

However, fundamentals have brightened with Cardano’s Hydra scaling and Midnight privacy tech advanced, daily transaction value topped $10B, and ADA joined the S&P Digital Markets 50, all factors often cited by institutions building longer-term positions.

Derivatives data echo the mixed tone as open interest has climbed above $600M, reflecting active speculation despite price compression, while steady exchange outflows point to broader staking/long-term holding behavior.

Can a MACD ‘Golden Cross’ Repeat June’s 60% Rally?

Momentum remains conflicted. The daily MACD is nearing a bullish crossover, a pattern that preceded June’s 60% ADA surge from the $0.53 zone to $0.93 within weeks.

Oversold oscillators (daily RSI 33, negative CCI, soft Awesome Oscillator) suggest sellers may be tiring into support, yet the ADX still favors the prevailing trend, arguing for patience until confirmation.

Technically, bulls must reclaim $0.664 and the 20-DMA to neutralize near-term downside. Above, $0.74–$0.77 (former support now resistance) and $0.80 align with a descending trendline from the Aug. 14 swing, forming a decisive ceiling.

A clean break and hold over $0.71–$0.74 (0.618 Fib confluence/EMA cluster) would strengthen the case for a trend reversal, and reopen talk of a move toward over $1.00 if momentum expands.

ADA Price Levels and Outlook: Support First, Then Confirmation

Near term, analysts see range-bound risk with downside skew. Models project $0.542–$0.590 over the next week if sellers press, with the Ichimoku Kijun support near $0.583 acting as a pivot.

Immediate levels to watch for Cardano (ADA) remain well-defined as the token trades within a tightening range. On the downside, support is seen at $0.639, followed by $0.602 and $0.583, with a breakdown below $0.60 likely to expose the $0.542 zone.

On the upside, resistance sits near $0.664, aligning with the 20-day moving average (20-DMA), while stronger hurdles appear around $0.74–$0.77 and the $0.80 trendline, which marks a key test for sustained bullish momentum.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview