Are BTC and ETH Near Breakdown or Rebound? Bitcoin Tests 50W SMA as Ethereum Eyes Upside
Bitcoin price is sitting at an important area as it tests its 50-week simple moving average near $102,000. This level has supported past market cycles. When it failed in earlier years, the market slipped into deeper declines.
Right now, Bitcoin price trades close to $101,500, down about -2.4% in the past day. Even so, it’s still down -5.8% over the week.
Daily trading volume is near $61.7Bn, showing steady participation despite the pullback.
Traders are watching this zone closely. A clean bounce could calm the market and a drop below it could hint at more weakness ahead.
The long-term chart signals caution. Each time Bitcoin has slipped below its 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), the market has suffered heavy losses.
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to several examples. The market dropped about 50% in 2011, 67% in 2014, 60% in 2018, and 66% in late 2021.
Bitcoin $BTC has seen an average 60% drop each time it has lost the 50W SMA as support.
Today, that would point to $40,000. https://t.co/LBYiDj0MBY pic.twitter.com/iVdxKesfAt
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 5, 2025
Even during the 2020 COVID shock, Bitcoin fell roughly 55% after losing this level.
With that history in mind, a clear break below $102,000 could open the way to the $40,000 area. Many traders now see that zone as a critical support for Bitcoin’s broader market structure.
Analyst Lennaert Snyder also marked $102,000 as important short-term support.
$BTC trading at crucial levels here.
It rejected the 4H $104,660 dropoff for now, I prefer to hold key $102,000 support to not lose the 4H uptrend.
Therefore $102,000 is interesting for longs after lower timeframe reversals.
"The" level to gain for Bitcoin is $107,100… pic.twitter.com/lkVFOqBaUm
— Lennaert Snyder (@LennaertSnyder) November 6, 2025
He said the four-hour chart still shows an upward trend, but warned that bulls need to take back $107,100 to keep that momentum intact.
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Ethereum Price Prediction: Could ETH Be Preparing for a New Upside Phase?
Ethereum was trading near $3,305 at press time, down -2.9% over the past day.
A weekly chart shared by the analyst shows the asset holding an important technical zone after its recent pullback.
Price bounced close to the 50-week moving average and the 0.618 Fibonacci level near $3,130, an area viewed as solid mid-cycle support.
The chart also shows Ethereum moving inside a long-term ascending wedge, a structure that has guided its trend since 2020.
$ETH very nice hold of support on the 50 WMA and the 0.618 Fib at $3130
Let's see a return to $4000 next and the worst can be behind $ETH. pic.twitter.com/4VPIIiUFNl
— The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) November 6, 2025
The chart indicates that the market may have finished its corrective Phase 2 and could be preparing for a broader move higher.
The next major hurdle sits near $4,865, which marks the previous cycle peak. The analyst sees this level as a practical upside target.
If price continues to push higher, the move would line up with a broader wave extension. In that case, the 1.618 Fibonacci level near $8,800 comes into view as the next major upside zone.
A steady rise in support levels and a clear upward trendline back the optimistic view.
But if Ethereum slips below $3,130, it could fall toward deeper support around $2,800. For now, momentum looks steady, even with recent swings.
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Why Did Bitmine Immersion Technologies Purchase Over 40,000 ETH?
On-chain analytics firm Lookonchain says large investors were active during the latest market dip.
Whales keep accumulating $ETH — over the past 3 days, many whales have collectively bought 394,682 $ETH($1.37B).https://t.co/RhDYQM0yl6 pic.twitter.com/3qMSojTSTu
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) November 6, 2025
Data shows eight major wallets bought a combined 394,682 ETH, valued at roughly $1.37 billion, over the past three days.
Their average entry price was about $3,462. Lookonchain pointed to one buyer linked to Aave as the biggest participant.
This wallet picked up 257,543 ETH, worth around $896 million, making it the most aggressive accumulator during the pullback.
The second-largest buyer was Bitmine Immersion Technologies, known as Ethereum’s biggest corporate holder. The company added 40,719 ETH, worth close to $139.6 million.
OnChain Lens data shows Bitmine first bought 20,205 ETH from Coinbase and FalconX. It later received another 20,514 ETH from FalconX.
A newly created wallet received 20,514 $ETH worth $69.31M from #FalconX, and it likely belongs to #Bitmine.
In total, Bitmine (@BitMNR) has bought 40,719 $ETH worth $138.28M, in the past 6 hours.
Address: 0x243e02eaF194A757577e9A4EEAf63478b06F586f6 https://t.co/vjeUFUef2H pic.twitter.com/IkBnhTvQdv
— Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) November 6, 2025
Data from Santiment suggests short-term traders are under pressure. Those active over the past 30 days are sitting on average unrealized losses of about 12.8%.
🥳 Ethereum has nearly scraped $3,500 again after threatening to fall below its $3,000 support just 20 hours ago. Traders active in the past 30 days show an average return of -12.8%, indicating there is still a severe level of pain and room to continue rising until it rises back… pic.twitter.com/BXCpuufAe5
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 5, 2025
Longer-term traders are also slightly in the red. Santiment noted that wallets active within the past year now show an average return of –0.3%.
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