Trump Promises $2000 ‘Tariff Dividend’ Payout By Mid-2026, But Prediction Markets Remain Skeptical
Posted On November 19, 2025
Even though President Donald Trump has promised the $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks by mid-2026, prediction markets are skeptical that policy changes would come anytime soon.
Prediction Markets Reduce Odds
The odds of Trump creating a tariff dividend, either by signing a federal legislation or through an executive order, this year, collapsed to 3% on Polymarket, down from 14% a week earlier.
Over $1 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market will resolve to “Yes” if Trump formally creates the dividend within the time frame, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
Cryptocurrency punters were not optimistic about any developments early next year as well, with only …
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