Bitcoin’s ‘Four-Year Cycle’ Isn’t Broken — It Was Never Real And The Data Finally Proves It
Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) so-called four-year cycle is cracking apart, with new analysis claiming the narrative survives on bad stats and cherry-picked charts.
New Research Challenges Halving-Linked Cycle Claims
Analysts argue that the halving has always been known in advance, meaning markets continuously discount it rather than react cyclically.
The notion that BTC resets every four years ignores how investors price information into markets daily, not at multi-year intervals.
The critique highlights that BTC’s entire history contains only four such “cycles,” offering far too little data to confirm a repeating pattern.
Treating four observations as a robust statistical sample creates the illusion of a reliable framework where none exists.
Multiple Testing And Survivorship Bias Undermine Cycle Theory
A key flaw is the multiple testing problem.
With enough backtesting across thousands of potential timeframes, some periods will appear statistically significant by chance.
Analysts note that many cycle proponents unintentionally cherry-pick the periods that look cyclical while discarding the rest, creating a false sense of …
About The Author
