If You’re Expecting A Bitcoin Bear Market In 2026, You Have It Wrong, Grayscale Says
Grayscale has shot down Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price crash predictions, predicting that the next major leg could take prices beyond prior records.
Grayscale Says Current Drawdown Matches Bull-Market Norms
In its November market commentary published on Monday, Grayscale said Bitcoin’s 32% drop from its October peak fits the pattern of typical bull-market pullbacks.
It noted that Bitcoin has posted declines of 10% or more about 50 times since 2010, making sharp drawdowns a recurring feature of its cycle.
The firm’s latest report said investors often underestimate how common such moves are, even during strong cycles.
The research team said it does not expect Bitcoin to enter a prolonged 2-3-year drawdown similar to past “cyclical” declines.
Instead, the firm highlighted that the current market structure differs from prior cycles due to the influence of exchange-traded products and corporate digital asset treasuries.
Grayscale said this shift reduces the relevance of the traditional four-year price rhythm tied to Bitcoin’s supply halving.
The firm also pointed to the absence of a parabolic rally in the latest cycle — a pattern that previously preceded multi-year crashes.
It said this moderation, combined with evolving market participation, supports a more constructive outlook for 2025 and 2026.
Hedging Activity And On-Chain Signals Indicate Bottoming Effort
Grayscale noted that Bitcoin put-option skew remains elevated across three and six-month tenors, signaling active downside hedging.
The firm said …
About The Author
