Bitcoin’s $150,000 Dreams Are Dead, Says Anthony Pompliano—But So Are 80% Drawdowns
Anthony Pompliano on Tuesday said Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) volatility compression has killed dreams of a $150,000 moonshot—but it also means traders won’t see another 80% bloodbath either.
The $150,000 Dream Died With Volatility
Bitcoin hit $126,000 in late 2025, and bulls were calling for $150,000 or higher by year-end.
Instead, BTC reversed hard, dropping to $87,000 and turning negative for the year.
Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, said on CNBC’s Squawk Box that volatility compression has changed the game.
Bitcoin’s historical 70-80% drawdowns came with explosive upside—parabolic rallies that doubled or tripled prices in months.
Now that volatility has been cut in half.
The result is straightforward: no more blowoff tops, but also no more catastrophic crashes.
Matthew Sigel from VanEck explained the math behind this shift.
If Bitcoin’s volatility gets cut in half, you’d expect a 40% drawdown instead of 80%.
That’s roughly what happened when BTC dropped from $126,000 to $80,000, representing about 36%.
The trade-off is clear. Holders sacrifice the euphoric rallies, but they also avoid the 75-80% wipeouts that defined previous cycles.
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