Will China Attack Taiwan In 2026? Crypto Bettors Are Not Convinced Even As Beijing Conducts Military Drills

Despite China conducting live-fire military drills near Taiwan, cryptocurrency bettors see only a low probability of Beijing imposing a blockade on the self-ruled island in the near future.

Taiwan Blockade Odds Remain Low

Odds that China imposes an aerial or naval blockade on Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, by June 2026 are now just 10% on Polymarket, down from 17% a month earlier and an all-time high of 24% on Oct. 18

According to the contract’s rules, a blockade occurs when foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan’s main ports or airports is restricted by threat or use of force, but not military or naval exercises or drills.

Meanwhile, the probability that Beijing will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 stood at …

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