Trump Tariff Checks: Betting Markets Skeptical Of Early Rollout, With Odds Under 15% Until May
Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no chance of an early-year payout.
Betting On Delay: Creation Vs. Cash
Data from prediction platforms reveals a sharp divergence between the program’s potential creation and the actual delivery of funds.
On Polymarket, traders are giving the administration a coin-flip chance, pricing in a 45% probability that Trump will successfully create the tariff dividend program by June 30.
However, markets are far more pessimistic about Americans seeing that money quickly. According to Kalshi, the odds of actually receiving a check “Before June” sit at just 15%—a significant 30-point gap compared to the creation odds.
This disparity suggests that even if …
About The Author
