Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP To Surge 20% In January? Unlikely, Polymarket Says
Polymarket traders are giving Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just a 31% chance to hit $100,000 in January, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) sits at 8% for $4,000 and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) at 14% for $2.40—signaling traders expect volatility without breakouts.
Bitcoin: Stuck In A $5,000-$15,000 Range
Bitcoin conviction is strongest near current levels and deteriorates rapidly above key thresholds.
Upside probabilities:
- $90,000: 99%
- $95,000: 60%
- $100,000: 31%
- $105,000: 14%
- $110,000+: single-digit odds
The steep decay above $95,000 signals traders don’t expect buyers to absorb supply at higher levels.
Downside probabilities:
- $85,000: 61%
- $80,000: 26%
- $75,000: 12%
Taken together, Polymarket traders are pricing a $5,000–$15,000 trading band, not a directional push as the market expects turbulence without escape velocity.
Ethereum: Range-Bound, No Acceleration
Ethereum’s Polymarket ladder mirrors Bitcoin’s restrained outlook, with highest conviction clustered around mid-range prices.
Polymarket assigns 76% odds to ETH holding above $3,200, but only 27% …
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