Polymarket Traders Fume As Prediction Platform Refuses To Settle Bets Worth Over $10 Million On US Invasion Of Venezuela— ‘You Cannot Change Rules…’

Prediction platform Polymarket is facing backlash after refusing to settle contracts betting on whether the U.S. would “invade” Venezuela, following a special forces operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Saturday.

Bets worth around $10.7 million are currently tied up in the disputed contracts, leaving bettors furious and reigniting questions around transparency and governance in the largely unregulated prediction market industry.

Polymarket Says Raid Doesn’t Meet Its Threshold

Polymarket said it would only resolve the “Will the US invade Venezuela?” bet if the U.S. commenced a military offensive aimed at establishing territorial control by one of the three specified dates. 

While U.S. forces extracted Maduro from his Caracas compound in a covert raid, the platform ruled that the action did not qualify as an invasion …

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