Will US Government Confirm Existence Of Aliens? Polymarket Bettors Don’t Think So Even As Declassified Files Drop
Posted On May 12, 2026
Prediction markets are having a moment right now, with bettors placing wagers on just about anything, even something as wild as the existence of aliens.
Heavily Wagered Bet
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently assigns a 19% chance that the U.S. government will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life before the end of the year. The odds at the beginning of the year were 7%.
More than $37 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if the president, any member of the U.S. Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or any U.S. federal agency “definitively states” that extraterrestrial life or technology exists.
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