{"id":10051,"date":"2025-01-28T12:03:24","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T12:03:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=10051"},"modified":"2025-01-28T12:03:24","modified_gmt":"2025-01-28T12:03:24","slug":"crypto-daybook-americas-bitcoin-rebounds-as-deepseek-concerns-wane-ai-tokens-regroup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=10051","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Rebounds as DeepSeek Concerns Wane, AI Tokens Regroup"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)<\/p>\n

The crypto market is showing signs of stabilizing, with bitcoin recovering to $102,000 and positive signals from futures tied to the Nasdaq. Leading the recovery among major cryptocurrencies is XRP, up 11%, followed by SOL with a 7% increase. AI coins, hit hard on Monday, are posting gains of as much as 4%.<\/p>\n

Risk sentiment is likely being supported by skepticism surrounding the claims of Chinese tech startup DeepSeek, which asserts it spent only $6 million to develop its competitor to ChatGPT. Critics speculate the figure omits costs associated with earlier research and experimentation on architectures, algorithms and data. Additionally, a concept rooted in the Jevons Paradox<\/a> suggests that advancements in efficiency often lead to increased usage rather than reduced consumption, leading to net positive growth in the industry.<\/p>\n

That’s good news for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry because they align with the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism, particularly given President Trump’s crypto-friendly stance and plans to establish a strategic digital asset reserve.<\/p>\n

Speaking of the strategic reserve, Arizona lawmakers have advanced a bill that would permit government entities or public funds to invest up to 10% of their capital in bitcoin and other digital assets.<\/p>\n

The broader outlook remains bullish, with on-chain data pointing to capitulation of weak hands and continued accumulation by large investors. <\/p>\n

“According to CryptoQuant data, the share of investors with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC who purchased coins in the last 155 days increased from 43% to 60%, reflecting the emergence of large players amid optimistic sentiment,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at the\u00a0FxPro.<\/p>\n

QCP Capital expects this week to test BTC’s correlation with equities, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support. Stay alert!<\/p>\n

What to Watch<\/h2>\n

Crypto:<\/p>\n

Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: Hedera (HBAR) network upgrade<\/a> (v0.57.5).<\/p>\n

Jan. 29: Cardano\u2019s Plomin hard fork network upgrade<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Feb. 2, 8:00 p.m.: Core blockchain Athena hard fork network upgrade<\/a> (v1.0.14)<\/p>\n

Feb. 4: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q4, FY 2024 earnings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving<\/a>. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 PEPE.<\/p>\n

Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network\u2019s Holocene hard fork network upgrade<\/a> for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.<\/p>\n

Feb. 6, 8:00 a.m.: Shentu Chain network upgrade<\/a> (v2.14.0).<\/p>\n

Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) Q4 2024 earnings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade<\/a> at block 4,590,000.<\/p>\n

Feb. 18 (after market close): Semler Scientific (SMLR) Q4 2024 earnings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Feb. 20: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2024 earnings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Macro<\/p>\n

Jan. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases December Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments Inventories and Orders<\/a>.<\/p>\n

MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. -1.1%.<\/p>\n

Jan. 28, 1:00 p.m.: The Fed releases December’s H.6 (Money Stock Measures) report<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Money Supply Prev. $21.45T.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29, 12:00 a.m.: Japan\u2019s Cabinet Office releases January\u2019s Consumer Confidence Survey<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Est. 36.5 vs. Prev. 36.2.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29, 4:00 a.m.: The European Central Bank (ECB) releases<\/a> Monetary Developments in the Euro Area for December.<\/p>\n

M3 Money Supply YoY Est. 3.8% vs. Prev. 3.8%.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29, 8:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) releases<\/a> the (quarterly) Monetary Policy Report.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29, 9:45 a.m.: The BoC announces its interest-rate decision<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Est. 3% vs. Prev. 3.25% followed by a press conference<\/a> at 10:30 a.m.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29, 2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> announces the U.S. central bank\u2019s interest-rate decision<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate Est. 4.25% to 4.5% vs. Prev. 4.25% to 4.5% followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Livestream link<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Token Events<\/h2>\n

Governance votes & calls<\/p>\n

Morpho DAO is voting whether to reduce MORPHO rewards by 30% across all assets and networks and set all assets other than those with ETH or USD denominations to have the same reward rate as BTC-denominated assets.<\/p>\n

Sky DAO is voting whether to reduce the WBTC liquidation threshold from 55% to 50% on SparkLend Ethereum.<\/p>\n

Yearn DAO is voting whether to fund and endorse Bearn, a new subDAO aiming to build and launch products on Berachain.<\/p>\n

Unlocks<\/p>\n

Jan. 28: Tribal Token (TRIBL) to unlock 14% of its circulating supply worth $60 million.<\/p>\n

Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.<\/p>\n

Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.<\/p>\n

Feb. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlocked about 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $226 million.<\/p>\n

Token Listings<\/p>\n

Jan. 28: Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) and Magic Eden (ME) to be listed on Kraken.<\/p>\n

Jan. 29: Cronos (CRO), Movement (MOVE) and Usual (USUAL) to be listed on Kraken.<\/p>\n

Conferences:<\/h2>\n

Jan. 29-31: Crypto Peaks 2025<\/a> (Palisades, California)<\/p>\n

Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.: International DeFi Day 2025<\/a> (online)<\/p>\n

Jan. 30-31: Ethereum Zurich 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Jan. 30-31: Plan B Forum<\/a> (San Salvador, El Salvador)<\/p>\n

Jan. 30 to Feb. 1: Crypto Gathering 2025<\/a> (Miami Beach, Florida)<\/p>\n

Jan. 30-Feb. 1: CryptoXR 2025<\/a> (Auxerre, France)<\/p>\n

Jan. 30-Feb. 2: Oasis Onchain 2025<\/a> (Nassau, Bahamas)<\/p>\n

Jan. 30-Feb. 4: The Satoshi Roundtable<\/a> (Dubai)<\/p>\n

Feb. 1-28: Mammathon<\/a> global hackathon for Celestia (online). <\/p>\n

Feb. 3: Digital Assets Forum<\/a> (London)<\/p>\n

Feb. 5-6: The 14th Global Blockchain Congress<\/a> (Dubai)<\/p>\n

Feb. 6: Ondo Summit 2025<\/a> (New York).<\/p>\n

Feb. 7: Solana APEX<\/a> (Mexico City)<\/p>\n

Feb. 13-14: The 4th Edition of NFT Paris<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Feb. 18-20: CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong<\/a><\/p>\n

Feb. 19: Sui Connect: Hong Kong<\/a><\/p>\n

Feb. 23-March 2: ETHDenver 2025<\/a> (Denver, Colorado)<\/p>\n

Feb. 25: HederaCon 2025<\/a> (Denver)<\/p>\n

Token Talk<\/h2>\n

By Shaurya Malwa<\/p>\n

AI-focused Venice AI (VVV) zoomed to a $1 billion market capitalization on Monday on its appeal of offering private, uncensored AI inference access without per-request fees. <\/p>\n

The Base-based token was listed on Coinbase \u2014 one of the rare assets listed on the exchange on the day of launch \u2014 which may have helped propel the move.<\/p>\n

Users stake VVV tokens to gain API access to AI stalwart DeepSeek, with ongoing rewards from token emissions.<\/p>\n

Derivatives Positioning<\/h2>\n

CME’s bitcoin and ether futures saw a notable drop in open interest on Monday, as traders de-risked during a sharp slide in Nvidia and other Nasdaq stocks. <\/p>\n

Perpetual funding rates for major coins have stabilized in the range of an annualized 5%-10%. Funding rates for BTC had briefly flipped bearish below zero early Monday. <\/p>\n

BTC calls are pricier than puts across all timeframes, while ETH’s front-end puts trade pricier, reflecting concerns of extended price drops in the next couple of days. <\/p>\n

Market Movements:<\/h2>\n

BTC is up 1.32% from 4 p.m. ET Monday to $98,784.45 (24hrs: +4.07%)<\/p>\n

ETH is up 1.62% at $3,050.20 (24hrs: +4.52%)<\/p>\n

CoinDesk 20 is up 3.2% to 3,536.28 (24hrs: +6.73%)<\/p>\n

CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 18 bps to 3.19%<\/p>\n

BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.2221% annualized) on Binance<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

DXY is up 0.57% at 107.95<\/p>\n

Gold is up 0.34% at $2,743.59\/oz<\/p>\n

Silver is up 0.35% to $30.16\/oz<\/p>\n

Nikkei 225 closed -1.39% at 39,016.87<\/p>\n

Hang Seng closed +0.14% to 20,225.11<\/p>\n

FTSE is up 0.58% at 8,553.75<\/p>\n

Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.47% at 5,212.71<\/p>\n

DJIA closed on Monday +0.65% to 44,713.58<\/p>\n

S&P 500 closed -1.46% at 6,012.28<\/p>\n

Nasdaq closed -3.07% at 19,341.83<\/p>\n

S&P\/TSX Composite Index closed -0.7% at 25,289.15<\/p>\n

S&P 40 Latin America closed +0.34% at 2,330.61<\/p>\n

U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 3 bps at 4.57%<\/p>\n

E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.39% at 6070.50<\/p>\n

E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.67% at 21,400.25<\/p>\n

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 44,935.00<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Stats:<\/h2>\n

BTC Dominance: 59.16 (0.15%)<\/p>\n

Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.031 (-0.32%)<\/p>\n

Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 767 EH\/s<\/p>\n

Hashprice (spot): $58.7<\/p>\n

Total Fees: 6.13 BTC\/ $616,619<\/p>\n

CME Futures Open Interest: 170,240 BTC<\/p>\n

BTC priced in gold: 37.6 oz<\/p>\n

BTC vs gold market cap: 10.68%<\/p>\n

Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

ETH carved out a candle with a long tail Monday, signaling bear fatigue at intraday lows. That’s often seen as a sign of an impending trend change higher. <\/p>\n

Prices, however, remain trapped in a descending channel, suggesting a bearish outlook.<\/p>\n

Crypto Equities<\/h2>\n

MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $347.92 (-1.63%), down 0.36% at $346.66 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $277.99 (-6.71%), up 0.76% at $280.11 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.36 (-15.87%).<\/p>\n

MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.28 (-8.53%), up 0.63% at $18.40 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.45 (-15.44%), down 6.87% at $12.61 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.28 (-29.41%), up 2.22% at $11.53 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.31 (-10.62%), up 1.21% at $10.43 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20.78 (-20.75%), down 3.99% at $21.61 in pre-market.<\/p>\n

Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $50.43 (-9.07%).<\/p>\n

Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $74 (+20.82%), unchanged in pre-market.<\/p>\n

ETF Flows<\/h2>\n

ETF Flows<\/p>\n

Spot BTC ETFs:<\/p>\n

Daily net flow: -$457.6 million<\/p>\n

Cumulative net flows: $39.49 billion<\/p>\n

Total BTC holdings ~ 1.157 million.<\/p>\n

Spot ETH ETFs<\/p>\n

Daily net flow: -$136.2 million<\/p>\n

Cumulative net flows: $2.67 billion<\/p>\n

Total ETH holdings ~ 3.59 million.<\/p>\n

Source: Farside Investors<\/a><\/p>\n

Overnight Flows<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Chart of the Day<\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Daily trading volume on Solana-based decentralized exchanges has dropped sharply to less than $10 billon from the high of $35 billion registered on Jan. 18, when the TRUMP token debuted and triggered a memecoin frenzy.<\/p>\n

Volumes, however, remain elevated at the average activity levels seen in November and December. <\/p>\n

While You Were Sleeping<\/h2>\n

KuCoin to Pay Nearly $300M Fine After Pleading Guilty to DOJ Charges<\/a> (CoinDesk): Crypto exchange KuCoin pleaded guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business, agreeing to pay $297 million in penalties and to exit the U.S. for two years.<\/p>\n

Tuttle Capital Proposes First-Ever Leveraged ETFs of TRUMP, MELANIA, Cardano, Others<\/a> (CoinDesk): Tuttle Capital Management filed 10 2x leveraged crypto ETF proposals with the SEC, including those tracking TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins.<\/p>\n

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Says ‘Own Bitcoin, Not MicroStrategy’<\/a> (CoinDesk): On Monday\u2019s Mad Money, Jim Cramer endorsed owning bitcoin while cautioning against MicroStrategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder. Critics frequently interpret his advice as a contrarian indicator.<\/p>\n

Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse Bats for Diversified U.S. Crypto Reserve<\/a> (CoinDesk): Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supports a U.S. digital asset reserve representing multiple tokens, not just bitcoin, calling BTC maximalism “the enemy of crypto progress.”<\/p>\n

BOJ to Raise Rates Again by July, Eventually Eye Hike to 1.5%, Says Ex-Policymaker<\/a> (Reuters): Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai predicts the bank will raise interest rates again by mid-2025, targeting 1.5% within two years.<\/p>\n

Dollar Climbs as Trump Puts Tariff Threats Back on the Agenda<\/a> (Bloomberg): The dollar strengthened against major currencies, with the yen leading losses after falling over 0.9%, as President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reignited tariff concerns.<\/p>\n

OpenAI\u2019s Altman Vows \u2018Better Models\u2019 as China\u2019s DeepSeek Disrupts Global Race<\/a> (Financial Times): On Monday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded to DeepSeek\u2019s generative AI rival to ChatGPT by pledging to accelerate product launches and deliver superior models.<\/p>\n

In the Ether<\/h2>\n

\"\"\"\"\"\"\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market is showing signs of stabilizing, with bitcoin recovering to $102,000 and positive signals from futures tied to the Nasdaq. Leading the recovery among major cryptocurrencies is XRP, up 11%, followed by SOL with a 7% increase. AI coins, hit hard on Monday, are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-10051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10051"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10051\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}