{"id":126022,"date":"2026-07-27T10:20:39","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T10:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=126022"},"modified":"2026-07-27T10:20:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T10:20:39","slug":"do-prediction-market-odds-equal-probability-not-quite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=126022","title":{"rendered":"Do prediction market odds equal probability? Not quite"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>Prices are well calibrated and predictably wrong in five ways: longshot bias, capital lock-up, thin books, fees, and resolution risk.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prices are well calibrated and predictably wrong in five ways: longshot bias, capital lock-up, thin books, fees, and resolution risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-126022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126022\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}