{"id":139376,"date":"2026-09-03T17:05:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T17:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=139376"},"modified":"2026-09-03T17:05:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T17:05:21","slug":"bitcoin-btc-rally-driven-by-short-covering-not-fresh-leverage-qcp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=139376","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Driven by Short Covering, Not Fresh Leverage: QCP"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin has gained almost 23% over the past month, but a few choppy sessions briefly dragged the asset below $76,500. BTC has since stabilized above $77,700 following a minor 1.4% surge on Thursday.<\/p>\n

The latest uptick came mainly from short covering rather than a fresh increase in leverage, according to QCP Capital, as markets continued to face a firm Federal Reserve stance.<\/p>\n

Fragile Positioning?<\/h2>\n

Kevin Warsh reinforced the Fed\u2019s focus on maintaining a 2% PCE inflation target, while headline PCE remains at 3.7%. This leaves little visible support for near-term rate cuts. Treasury long-end buybacks were doubled to $4 billion quarterly, but QCP said<\/a> the amount represents only 0.013% of the $31.5 trillion Treasury market, which points to liquidity support rather than a policy pivot.<\/p>\n

Heavy long-dated investment-grade issuance is also adding pressure, as technology companies account for 38% of 10-year-plus supply. Additionally, ETF inflows near the 95th percentile indicate genuine spot demand, although MSTR\u2019s Bitcoin accumulation was funded<\/a> through equity issuance.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWith policy guidance scarce and liquidity narrow, is this conviction or fragile positioning?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, analyst NoName said that Bitcoin\u2019s next major move could depend<\/a> on whether it can close above $83,000. The analyst is also watching a CME futures gap above the current price and sees it as an important level separating a genuine reversal from another relief rally. A daily close above the level, supported by strong spot volume, would be needed to confirm a new uptrend.<\/p>\n

Without that confirmation, NoName said that the recent bounce was a retest of previous supply. They warned that a rejection at $83,000 followed by a break below $74,000 could send the crypto asset toward $50,000-$55,000.<\/p>\n

CryptoPatel also flagged<\/a> the exact level and said that Bitcoin could face further losses if it fails to reclaim it with a higher-timeframe candle close. In that scenario, the analyst expects potential declines toward $70,000, $65,000, and $60,000. If the bearish market structure remains intact, the crypto asset could eventually fall toward the $50,000-$40,000 range. However, a higher-timeframe close above the $83,000 level would invalidate the bearish setup.<\/p>\n

Another market watcher, Rain, noted<\/a> that Bitcoin is starting to lose the demand support that helped the August rally.<\/p>\n

The Case for Further Upside<\/h2>\n

Not everyone sees further downside ahead. Doctor Profit, for one, reiterated his stance that the bear market is over. He had previously stated<\/a> that BTC broke out above key resistances and entered the Soft Bull Market, which he expects to turn into a full bull market escalation.<\/p>\n

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\u201cMany desperate investors that wish for a lower Bitcoin price, some even call for a new low, and others say the bear market isn\u2019t over. In fact, and I say it with my full conviction, I consider the bear market as over!\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

More on the current market state can be found in our latest video below.<\/p>\n