{"id":15766,"date":"2025-03-02T18:17:01","date_gmt":"2025-03-02T18:17:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=15766"},"modified":"2025-03-02T18:17:01","modified_gmt":"2025-03-02T18:17:01","slug":"bitcoin-reserve-in-100-days-of-trumps-presidency-market-is-still-skeptical","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=15766","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Reserve in 100 Days of Trump&#8217;s Presidency? Market Is Still Skeptical"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/policy\/2025\/03\/02\/trump-to-establish-u-s-crypto-reserve\" target=\"_blank\">A weekend Truth Social post<\/a> from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps in creating a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve, but Polymarket traders are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be created within the first 100 days of the Trump presidency \u2013 or by April 30th, 2025.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.sanity.io\/images\/s3y3vcno\/production\/b72020ba7c00744c450681f6e1ea1f85f9aff6f4-1240x787.png?auto=format\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>Rules of the contract say that the U.S. government will need to specifically hold bitcoin \u2013 and not from confiscation \u2013 by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for this to resolve to yes. Announcements of the creation of a reserve do not count.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Chances of a reserve coming true spiked from 11% to 23% in the moments after Trump&#8217;s announcement. <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025?tid=1740934435780\" target=\"_blank\">Another contract<\/a> that asks if a reserve will be created by the end of 2025 currently has a 65% chance of resolving to yes.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Initially, Trump&#8217;s social media post announcing the creation of the reserve only named XRP and SOL as components of the reserve\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2025\/03\/02\/bitcoin-jumps-above-usd91k-after-trump-establishes-u-s-crypto-reserves\" target=\"_blank\">which caused their value to spike<\/a>\u2014before clarifying that<a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/114093946326587357\" target=\"_blank\"> BTC and ETH would also be included in the reserve.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>One of the most profitable traders of the 100-<a href=\"https:\/\/polymarketanalytics.com\/traders\/0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b\" target=\"_blank\">day crypto reserve contract is Theo5<\/a>, which appears to be affiliated with a <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/french-whale-made-massive-pro-080300420.html\" target=\"_blank\">French trader<\/a> who <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarketanalytics.com\/traders\/0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839\" target=\"_blank\">created a series of accounts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarketanalytics.com\/traders\/0x56687bf447db6ffa42ffe2204a05edaa20f55839\" target=\"_blank\">including Theo4<\/a>, to directionally bet on Trump&#8217;s victory in the November 2024 election.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Theo5 currently has posted a $40,000 profit on his no position.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.sanity.io\/images\/s3y3vcno\/production\/f8d579b5982f61b20a47298fe0f439f7b733b170-892x629.png?auto=format\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, a <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarketanalytics.com\/traders\/0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee\" target=\"_blank\">trader known as Polywog<\/a> lost $73,000 on their yes position and <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarketanalytics.com\/traders\/0xf0d9af9effd0b4a039899901ba19a05ea1a3e4ee\" target=\"_blank\">also lost over $560,000<\/a> by incorrectly betting on the outcome of the 2025 election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A weekend Truth Social post from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps in creating a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve, but Polymarket traders are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days. As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-15766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15766\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}