{"id":17717,"date":"2025-03-18T23:16:51","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T23:16:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=17717"},"modified":"2025-03-18T23:16:51","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T23:16:51","slug":"ethereum-price-in-cursed-downtrend-which-could-continue-well-into-2025-analyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=17717","title":{"rendered":"Ethereum price in \u2018cursed\u2019 downtrend which could continue well into 2025 \u2014 Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Ethereum<\/p>\n

Ethereum\u2019s native token, Ether (ETH<\/a>), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH\u2019s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.<\/p>\n

Ether\u2019s repeat breakdowns point to more downside<\/h2>\n

The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH\u2019s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce. <\/p>\n

However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
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ETH\/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Since mid-2024, the ETH\/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.<\/p>\n

X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom<\/a> highlighted ETH\u2019s negative price performance, noting that the ETH\/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence\u2014when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows\u2014on its weekly chart.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
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ETH\/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView\/CryptoNoctom<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

ETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weakness<\/h2>\n

The \u201ccursed<\/a>\u201d ETH\/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.<\/p>\n

The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped<\/a> 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down<\/a> 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
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Source: Ted Pillows<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Meanwhile, Ethereum\u2019s gas fees<\/a>\u2014measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet\u2014were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
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Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cDespite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,\u201d data analytics platform Nansen wrote<\/a> in its latest report, adding: <\/p>\n

\u201cThis is downstream of a few things but much of the activity has shifted to Solana and L2s over 2024.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk\/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.<\/p>\n

A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data. <\/p>\n

Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH\u2019s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
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Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The ETH\/BTC pair could drop another 15%<\/h2>\n

ETH\/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.<\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

A bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend\u2019s height. Applying the same rule on ETH\/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin
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ETH\/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH\/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.<\/p>\n

Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH\/BTC breaks above the pennant\u2019s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.<\/p>\n

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n