{"id":20887,"date":"2025-04-07T10:32:14","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T10:32:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=20887"},"modified":"2025-04-07T10:32:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T10:32:14","slug":"crypto-set-to-boom-as-tariffs-accelerate-the-endgame-says-arthur-hayes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=20887","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Set To Boom As Tariffs Accelerate The Endgame, Says Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of family office Maelstrom, has issued a striking macro thesis: escalating tariff warfare, driven by a reassertion of US trade dominance under Donald Trump, will serve as a catalyst for massive liquidity injections and consequently ignite a prolonged crypto bull market. In an interview<\/a> with crypto channel Coin Bureau, Hayes laid out his most detailed view yet on how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and central bank capitulation will shape the monetary regime in which digital assets thrive.<\/p>\n

Crypto Bull Run Coming On Tariff Shock<\/h2>\n

\u201cThe global monetary order doesn\u2019t work for China and the United States in its current situation,\u201d Hayes said, arguing that the Trump administration\u2019s aggressive reimplementation of trade tariffs<\/a>\u2014particularly against China\u2014marks the acceleration of a process already in motion since the 2008 financial crisis. \u201cTrump didn\u2019t cause it\u2026 this was going to happen anyway\u2014it just might\u2019ve taken a little longer.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hayes emphasized that the core issue isn\u2019t the tariffs themselves, but their downstream consequences. \u201cThese tariffs are great,\u201d he said bluntly. \u201cThey\u2019re accelerating a change that was going to happen anyways\u2026 and we know philosophically and ideologically that all major politicians in the US, China, EU, and Japan do not want to do austerity.\u201d The implication, in his view, is clear: large-scale fiscal spending and monetary accommodation are the only politically viable responses to the economic pain tariffs will cause.<\/p>\n

That pain, Hayes argued, will not be distributed evenly. China, which has long relied on export-driven growth, faces an existential dilemma. \u201cWhat does America want? America wants China to not do the thing that raised 400 million Chinese out of poverty.\u201d Hayes suggested that Xi Jinping cannot accept the fundamental restructuring of China\u2019s economic model that Trump\u2019s tariff regime demands. \u201cTherefore, ultimately, I think there is no deal between the US and China,\u201d he said, predicting that China will respond by allowing the yuan to depreciate sharply\u2014potentially as far as 9 or 10 against the US dollar.<\/p>\n

This macro backdrop\u2014deglobalization, protectionism, and the breakdown of prior trade arrangements\u2014is, in Hayes\u2019 analysis, highly inflationary. And central banks, already under pressure to maintain cheap funding for governments, will be forced to respond. \u201cWe know that money will be printed. We know that the Fed is on board with providing the accommodation needed to make this transition as palatable as possible,\u201d Hayes said, referencing Jerome Powell\u2019s recent dovish rhetoric. \u201cThat\u2019s what basically cemented my view of being very bullish in the medium term on crypto.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the March 2025 FOMC press conference, Powell signaled an end to quantitative tightening (QT)<\/a> and floated the possibility of renewed balance sheet expansion\u2014even with inflation still above the 2% target. \u201cHe said the inflationary impact of tariffs was transitory,\u201d Hayes noted, \u201cand therefore his easing bias is going to continue even if inflation shows up in CPI.\u201d Hayes argued this is nothing short of fiscal dominance\u2014a term describing when central banks subordinate monetary policy to government funding needs.<\/p>\n

The structure of global bond markets is also a key concern. Hayes highlighted the fragility of the US Treasury market, which has become increasingly reliant on leveraged hedge funds conducting basis trades due to the retreat of traditional sovereign buyers. \u201cWithout these relative value hedge funds, there wouldn\u2019t be a 4% Treasury yield\u2014it\u2019d be much higher,\u201d Hayes warned. He predicted that the Fed will be forced into stealth QE, stepping in as the backstop for this fragile ecosystem.<\/p>\n

As monetary policy reverts to accommodation globally, Hayes believes Bitcoin and crypto will begin decoupling from risk assets like the NASDAQ. \u201cBitcoin is going to start to look through all this tariff noise and focus on the certainty. The certainty is: money printing,\u201d he said. He reiterated<\/a> that \u201cBitcoin could easily go to $250,000 this year,\u201d if the liquidity conditions align.<\/p>\n

Hayes also reiterated his confidence in a new wave of altcoin performance\u2014but only selectively. \u201cI think Bitcoin dominance could rise to 70% before rotation begins,\u201d he said, adding that altcoins without users, revenue, or real product-market fit will likely perish.<\/p>\n

Still, the broader thrust of Hayes\u2019 thesis is not about specific tokens but macro inevitabilities. Tariffs, in his view, are not aberrations but markers of a deeper unraveling of the post-Cold War financial consensus. \u201cThe politicians are going to print the money. That\u2019s the only tool they have left,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd when they do, crypto will be the beneficiary.\u201d<\/p>\n

Notably, Hayes today urged the community to see the current market crash as an opportunity. Via X, he writes: \u201cSo close fam. Oh what shall I do, if BTC breaks below $76,500 my credibility will be in tatters \u2026 BUY THE F***ING DIP MOTHER F***ER!<\/p>\n

At press time, leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin traded at $75,324.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of family office Maelstrom, has issued a striking macro thesis: escalating tariff warfare, driven by a reassertion of US trade dominance under Donald Trump, will serve as a catalyst for massive liquidity injections and consequently ignite a prolonged crypto bull market. In an interview with crypto channel Coin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-20887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20887"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20887\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}