{"id":22498,"date":"2025-04-17T08:46:52","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T08:46:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=22498"},"modified":"2025-04-17T08:46:52","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T08:46:52","slug":"bitcoin-the-haven-crypto-bulls-hoped-for-is-more-a-barometer-of-risk-godbole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=22498","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin, the Haven Crypto Bulls Hoped for, Is More a Barometer of Risk: Godbole"},"content":{"rendered":"
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President Donald Trump’s trade war has introduced significant volatility to financial markets since March, prompting investors to chase assets they believe provide a hedge in this turbulent environment.<\/p>\n

What’s clear: Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) is not one of them, much to the dismay of bullish investors who have long thought of the largest cryptocurrency as digital gold either as a store of value or a haven investment. The reality is that since the onset of the trade war, bitcoin has become more closely correlated with the Aussie dollar-yen pair (AUD\/JPY), the foreign exchange market\u2019s risk barometer.<\/p>\n

Data from TradingView show the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the AUD\/JPY pair flipped positive in late February and has since hit the highest since November 2021. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two nations has led to a staggering 245% cumulative levy on Chinese imports to the U.S., leading to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating stagflation risks on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The correlation of 0.80 \u2014 the maximum value is 1 \u2014 is considered strong, implying that the two variables, BTC and AUD\/JPY, are closely related in their movements in the same direction.<\/p>\n

In contrast, bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold flipped negative in late February and has since dropped to -0.80, just above the minimum -1. It means the two are closely related in their movements, but in opposite directions.<\/p>\n

BTC, a proxy for risk<\/h2>\n

The Australian dollar, being China-sensitive and the home currency of a commodity-exporting nation, is seen as a risk currency. The yen is a safe haven because Japan has been a net international creditor for decades with near-zero interest rates.<\/p>\n

When global markets are optimistic and commodity demand rises, the AUD typically appreciates, reflecting a higher risk appetite among investors and the yen drops. The opposite holds true when they become risk-averse.<\/p>\n

Traders, therefore, monitor AUD\/JPY as a risk indicator, viewing uptrends as positive signs for risk assets like stocks, and vice versa. Bitcoin, which was already emerging in a comparable role<\/a>, has strengthened its position. The correlation data indicates that BTC is now as much a proxy for risk sentiment as AUD\/JPY.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump’s trade war has introduced significant volatility to financial markets since March, prompting investors to chase assets they believe provide a hedge in this turbulent environment. What’s clear: Bitcoin (BTC) is not one of them, much to the dismay of bullish investors who have long thought of the largest cryptocurrency as digital gold […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-22498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}