{"id":22833,"date":"2025-04-19T14:16:50","date_gmt":"2025-04-19T14:16:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=22833"},"modified":"2025-04-19T14:16:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-19T14:16:50","slug":"xrp-to-revisit-its-1-realized-price-these-charts-paint-a-bearish-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=22833","title":{"rendered":"XRP to revisit its $1 ‘realized price’? These charts paint a bearish picture"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"XRP<\/p>\n

XRP (XRP<\/a>) has bounced nearly 30% after a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals now point to a deeper correction ahead.<\/p>\n

XRP cup-and-handle pattern hints at 40% drop <\/h2>\n

XRP is forming a classic bearish reversal pattern that could see its price falling by at least 40% in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

Dubbed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H), the pattern forms when the price rounds off in a curved descent (cup) followed by a brief consolidation phase (handle) \u2014 all atop a common neckline support level. <\/p>\n

\"XRP
Inverted cup-and-handle pattern illustrated. Source: <\/em>Medium<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The pattern is confirmed by a breakdown stage, where the price breaks decisively below support and falls by as much as the pattern\u2019s maximum height. <\/p>\n

As of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern\u2019s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. In this case, the primary downside target will likely be around $1.24, almost 40% below current prices.<\/p>\n

\"XRP
XRP\/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The IC&H target aligns with XRP\u2019s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $1.28 \u2014 and further coincides with a November 2024 top.<\/p>\n

Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that XRP\u2019s market cap could drop by 50% in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

\"XRP,
Source: <\/em>Peter Brandt<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

XRP onchain fractal hints at 50% correction <\/h2>\n

XRP\u2019s inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with its historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have topped out. <\/p>\n

For instance, the cryptocurrency saw sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price<\/a> following major surges in previous cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.<\/p>\n

\"XRP
XRP realized price by age (aggregated). Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For traders, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved. <\/p>\n

When the market price trades well above this level, most holders are in profit, which can encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price nears the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, and selling pressure can intensify.<\/p>\n

In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing steam, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price at around $1, a likely downside target in 2025 down about 50% from the current prices.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, XRP\u2019s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph\u2019s analysis in late March<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"XRP,
XRP\/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Adding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. The metric historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks. <\/p>\n

Related: <\/strong><\/em>81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish \u2014 Here is why<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\"XRP
XRP percent of addresses in profit. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

If history repeats, such similar conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP\u2019s retracement toward the realized price.<\/p>\n

Odds of XRP hitting record highs are declining <\/h2>\n

Sentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket. <\/p>\n

As of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March, as shown below.<\/p>\n

\"XRP,
XRP all-time highs before 2026 odds. Source: Polymarket<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under Donald Trump\u2019s trade policies.<\/p>\n

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n