{"id":24174,"date":"2025-04-28T14:31:47","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T14:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=24174"},"modified":"2025-04-28T14:31:47","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T14:31:47","slug":"prediction-markets-traders-bet-big-on-easy-liberal-win-as-canadians-head-to-the-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=24174","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets Traders Bet Big on Easy Liberal Win as Canadians Head to the Polls"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada as the nation heads to the polls.<\/p>\n

As the country’s 45th election comes to a close, a contract asking bettors to predict who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister gives the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney a 78% chance, and the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre a 22% shot.<\/p>\n

\"(Polymarket)\"<\/p>\n

Political bettors are slightly more skeptical of Carney’s chances of winning than the polls, but both are pointing in the same direction. A poll aggregator from public broadcaster CBC<\/a> puts Carney’s chances at 89%.<\/p>\n

\"(CBC)\"<\/p>\n

Myriad Markets<\/a>, another prediction market, is giving Carney similar odds to Polymarket.<\/p>\n

\"(Myriad.Markets)\"<\/p>\n

FanDuel<\/a>, a licensed betting platform open only to residents of Ontario, Canada, initially gave the Conservatives a sharp, contrarian lead of 70%, according to a report from the National Post<\/a>. Still, odds have fallen in line with prediction markets, and it now gives the Liberals a roughly 80% chance of winning.<\/p>\n

Unlike the U.S. election, there isn’t a crypto angle up north<\/a> with leaders’ campaigns focused on the trade war and inflation.<\/p>\n

Too Big to Rig?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A growing narrative<\/a> in certain corners of the internet<\/a> is that Polymarket is prone to manipulation and its numbers aren’t reliable, criticisms that echo<\/a> what was said in the last weeks of the U.S. election<\/a> when the site gave Donald Trump a commanding lead as polls showed a tight race.<\/p>\n

Critics say Poilievre’s chances are being suppressed and do not reflect the political sentiment of the populace.<\/p>\n

However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there’s no credible evidence that this is happening even as Polymarket is banned in Canada’s largest province<\/a> after a settlement with its securities regulator.<\/p>\n

Data portal Polymarket Analytics<\/a> shows that the Canadian election contract leads the platform in open interest, which is the total value of active, unsettled bets and a good measure of market engagement.<\/p>\n

\"(Polymarket<\/p>\n

Market data also shows<\/a> that position holding is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Poilivere\u2014No side of the contracting holding 6% of all shares and the largest holder of the Carney\u2014Yes side holding 5%.<\/p>\n

\"(Polymarket<\/p>\n

One bettor, who is betting big on Carney with a six-figure position, who spoke to CoinDesk, said their motives are non-partisan, and said that the quality of Canadian polling makes him confident that the Liberals will win.<\/p>\n

“Poilievre needs a 7-point polling error to win and I think the probability of that is closer to 7% than his current market price of 23c,” trader Tenadome told CoinDesk via an X DM. “The pool of Poilievre bettors seems to largely be very dumb money that believes in things like China is rigging the polls.”<\/p>\n

Currently, the trader with the largest winnings on the contract is “ball-sack<\/a>” with a profit of $124,890, thanks to bets on Carney. On the other side of the trade is “biden4prez,” who lost just over $98,000 \u2013 the most out of any trader \u2013 betting on Poilievre and against Carney.<\/p>\n

Read more: Previewing the Canadian Election’s Crypto Angle<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Political bettors on Polymarket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada as the nation heads to the polls. As the country’s 45th election comes to a close, a contract asking bettors to predict who will be Canada’s next Prime Minister gives the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney a 78% chance, and the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-24174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24174\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}