{"id":25710,"date":"2025-05-08T06:46:48","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T06:46:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=25710"},"modified":"2025-05-08T06:46:48","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T06:46:48","slug":"arthur-hayes-says-bitcoin-will-hit-1m-by-2028-as-u-s-china-craft-hollow-trade-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=25710","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Will Hit $1M by 2028 as U.S.-China Craft Hollow Trade Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Arthur Hayes has a message for crypto investors and bitcoin (BTC) HODLers obsessing over Federal Reserve policy as the U.S. and China inch toward a trade deal: You’re watching the wrong institution.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn\u2019t matter,\u201d Hayes told CoinDesk in a recent interview. \u201cPowell didn\u2019t matter in 2022 under a Democratic regime, and he doesn\u2019t matter now under a Republican one.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Hayes, the Federal Reserve has become a sideshow. The real monetary lever-pulling, he argues, is happening under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is quietly reshaping global liquidity with buybacks and auction strategies designed to manage a ballooning U.S. debt load.<\/p>\n

That flood of liquidity, paired with America\u2019s inability to rein in spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin is heading to $1 million by 2028.<\/p>\n

\u201cAll we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday,” Hayes said. “That\u2019s all that matters.\u201d<\/p>\n

But monetary policy isn\u2019t the only catalyst in his view. Hayes sees geopolitics fueling the fire too, particularly the performative trade diplomacy between the U.S. and China. As both sides posture, Hayes says they\u2019ll likely sign a deal that looks bold on paper but changes nothing of substance.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s going to be a deal on the surface,\u201d he said. \u201cTrump needs to prove he\u2019s been tough on China. Xi needs to prove that he stood up to the white man.\u201d<\/p>\n

After all, China has proven with its Covid-era policies it can withstand more economic pain. With tariffs politically risky, Hayes thinks the next move will be taxing foreign investment, a quiet form of capital control meant to reduce America\u2019s dependence on foreign buyers without spooking domestic voters. This is how you get the American people to swallow a realignment of trade.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe only real policy that actually works is capital controls,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Potentially, there are multiple tools on the table. Not just taxes on foreign-held Treasuries or equities, but more aggressive ideas like forced bond swaps, trading 10-year notes for 100-year paper, or higher withholding taxes on capital gains from U.S. assets.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all part of a strategy to rebalance the financial account without forcing Americans to \u201cbuy less stuff,\u201d a message he says no politician can sell.<\/p>\n

\u201cAmericans don\u2019t like to do hard things,\u201d he added. \u201cThey don\u2019t want to be told that you have to consume less.\u201d<\/p>\n

China will continue to pile on into U.S. assets<\/h4>\n

China, meanwhile, isn\u2019t going anywhere. Hayes says it has no choice but to keep buying U.S. assets even if it pretends otherwise.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have to obfuscate kind of how much stuff they\u2019re buying off of America\u2026 but mathematically, they just can\u2019t stop.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Hayes, this all leads to one place: more money sloshing through the system, and bitcoin soaking up the spillover.<\/p>\n

His portfolio reflects that thesis: 60 to 65 percent in bitcoin, 20 percent in ether (ETH), and the rest in what he calls \u201cquality shitcoins.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why? Because the market is finally looking for coins that actually work.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are in fundamentals season. people are tired of coins that don\u2019t do anything,\u201d Hayes said.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes has a message for crypto investors and bitcoin (BTC) HODLers obsessing over Federal Reserve policy as the U.S. and China inch toward a trade deal: You’re watching the wrong institution. \u201cThe real show is at the Treasury Department. Ignore the Fed. It doesn\u2019t matter,\u201d Hayes told CoinDesk in a recent interview. \u201cPowell didn\u2019t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-25710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25710\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}