{"id":27734,"date":"2025-05-20T17:31:50","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T17:31:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=27734"},"modified":"2025-05-20T17:31:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-20T17:31:50","slug":"bitcoin-falters-near-record-but-realized-price-analysis-suggests-optimistic-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=27734","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Falters Near Record, but &#8216;Realized Price&#8217; Analysis Suggests Optimistic Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Record highs \u2014 be it $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year \u2014 are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don&#8217;t do a great job of describing price action.<\/p>\n<p>Tracking the &#8220;realized price,&#8221; or the average price at which bitcoin BTC is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a market-wide cost basis is a more valuable tool for gauging investor profitability and potential inflection points in market sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>The charts (above and below) illustrate the average withdrawal prices for different investor cohorts, segmented by the year they entered the market starting Jan. 1 of each year from 2017 to 2025. <\/p>\n<p>The average realized price for the 2025 so far is $93,266. With bitcoin currently trading at $105,000, these investors are up approximately 12% on average.<\/p>\n<p>When bitcoin began its decline from the all-time high of $109,000 in late January, it briefly fell below the 2025 realized price, a historical signal of capitulation. This period of stress lasted until April 22, when the price reclaimed the cohort\u2019s cost basis.<\/p>\n<h3>Historical Context: Capitulation Patterns<\/h3>\n<p>Historically, when price falls below a cohort\u2019s realized price, it often marks market capitulation and cyclical bottoms:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>2024:<\/strong> After the ETF launch in January, bitcoin dipped below the average cost basis before rebounding. A more significant capitulation followed in the summer, linked to the yen carry trade unwind when bitcoin plunged to $49,000. <\/li>\n<li><strong>2023:<\/strong> Price tracked close to the average cost basis during support levels, only briefly breaking below during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The data suggests that a capitulation phase has likely occurred, positioning the market for a more constructive phase. Historically, recoveries from such events mark transitions into healthier market conditions.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.sanity.io\/images\/s3y3vcno\/production\/18cda7c25737bccd7416b831095a15ec233b75aa-3200x1800.png?auto=format\" alt=\"BTC: Exchange Average Withdrawal Price (by year) (Glassnode)\" title=\"BTC: Exchange Average Withdrawal Price (by year) (Glassnode)\"><\/p>\n<h5>Realized, not record<\/h5>\n<p>When bitcoin first surpassed $20,000 during the 2017 bull market, it marked a significant divergence between the market price and the realized price of just $5,149, highlighting a phase of exuberant speculation. Unsurprisingly, prices very shortly after went into a brutal reversal.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, by the depths of the 2018 bear market when bitcoin bottomed around $3,200, price at that point converged with the all-time realized price, a metric that aggregates the cost basis of all investors across cycles.<\/p>\n<p>This long-term cost basis acts as a foundational support level in bear markets and gradually rises over time as new capital enters the market. Therefore, evaluating bitcoin solely by comparing cycle peaks, for example, from $69,000 in 2021 to just over $100,000 in 2025, misses the bigger picture.<\/p>\n<p>The more relevant insight is that the aggregate cost basis of all investors continues to climb, underscoring the long-term maturation of the asset and the increasing depth of capital committed to the network.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Record highs \u2014 be it $20,000 in 2017, $69,000 in 2021 and $109,000 this year \u2014 are great for headlines and quick comparisons, but in reality don&#8217;t do a great job of describing price action. Tracking the &#8220;realized price,&#8221; or the average price at which bitcoin BTC is withdrawn from all exchanges to estimate a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-27734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27734\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}