{"id":27835,"date":"2025-05-21T10:32:07","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T10:32:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=27835"},"modified":"2025-05-21T10:32:07","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T10:32:07","slug":"these-six-charts-explain-why-bitcoins-recent-move-to-over-100k-may-be-more-durable-than-januarys-run","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=27835","title":{"rendered":"These Six Charts Explain Why Bitcoin’s Recent Move to Over $100K May Be More Durable Than January’s Run"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bitcoin BTC is trading above $100,000 again, and investors, prone to recency bias, may be quick to assume that this event will play out like it did in December-January, when the bull momentum faded, with prices quickly falling back into six figures, eventually dropping as low as $75,000.<\/p>\n

However, according to the following six charts, the bitcoin market now appears sturdier than in December-January, suggesting a higher probability of a continued move higher.<\/p>\n

Financial conditions: (DXY, 10y, 30y yields vs BTC)<\/h4>\n

Financial conditions refer to various economic variables, including interest rates, inflation, credit availability, and market liquidity. These are influenced by the benchmark government bond yield, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the dollar exchange rate and other factors.<\/p>\n

Tighter financial conditions disincentivize risk-taking in financial markets and the economy, while easier conditions have the opposite effect.<\/p>\n

As of writing, financial conditions, represented by the 10-year yield and the dollar index, appear much easier than in January, favoring a sustained move higher in BTC.<\/p>\n

\"BTC<\/p>\n

At press time, the dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against major currencies, stood at 99.60, down 9% from highs above 109.00 in January. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.52%, down 30 basis points from the high of 4.8% in January.<\/p>\n

The 30-year yield has risen above 5%, revisiting levels seen in January, but is largely seen as positive for bitcoin and gold.<\/p>\n

More dry powder<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The combined market capitalization of the top two USD-pegged stablecoins, USDT and USDC, has reached a record high of $151 billion. That’s nearly 9% higher than the average $139 billion in December-January, according to data source TradingView.<\/p>\n

In other words, a greater amount of dry powder is now available for potential investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n

\"BTC<\/p>\n

Bold directional bets<\/h4>\n

BTC’s run higher from early April lows near $75,000 is characterized by institutions predominantly taking bullish directional bets<\/a> rather than arbitrage bets.<\/p>\n

That’s evident by the booming inflows into the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the still subdued open interest in the CME BTC futures.<\/p>\n

According to data source Velo, the notional open interest in the CME bitcoin futures has jumped to $17 billion, the highest since Feb. 20. Still, it remains well below the December high of $22.79 billion.<\/p>\n

\"BTC<\/p>\n

On the contrary, the cumulative inflows into the 11 spot ETFs now stand at a record $42.7 billion versus $39.8 billion in January, according to data source Farside Investors.<\/p>\n

No signs of speculative fervor<\/h4>\n

Historically, interim and major bitcoin tops, including the December-January one, have been characterized by speculative fervour in the broader market, leading to a sharp rise in market valuations for non-serious tokens such as DOGE and SHIB.<\/p>\n

There are no such signs now, with the combined market cap of DOGE and SHIB well below their January highs.<\/p>\n

\"BTC<\/p>\n

No signs of overheating<\/strong><\/h4>\n

The bitcoin perpetual futures market shows demand for bullish leveraged bets, understandably so, considering BTC is trading near record highs.<\/p>\n

However, the overall positioning remains light, with no signs of excess leverage build-up or bullish overheating, as evidenced by funding rates hovering well below highs seen in December.<\/p>\n

\"BTC's<\/p>\n

The chart shows funding rates, which refer to the cost of holding perpetual futures bets. The positive figure indicates a bias for longs and willingness among the bulls to pay shorts to keep their positions open. It’s a sign of bullish market sentiment.<\/p>\n

Implied volatility suggests calm<\/h4>\n

The bitcoin market appears much calmer this time, with Deribit’s DVOL index, measuring the 30-day expected or implied volatility, significantly lower than levels observed in December-January and March 2024 price tops.<\/p>\n

The low IV suggests traders are not pricing in the extreme price swings or uncertainty that typically exists in an overheated market, indicating a more measured and potentially more sustainable uptrend.<\/p>\n

\"BTC's<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin BTC is trading above $100,000 again, and investors, prone to recency bias, may be quick to assume that this event will play out like it did in December-January, when the bull momentum faded, with prices quickly falling back into six figures, eventually dropping as low as $75,000. However, according to the following six charts, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-27835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27835\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}