{"id":28162,"date":"2025-05-22T18:31:33","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T18:31:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=28162"},"modified":"2025-05-22T18:31:33","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T18:31:33","slug":"bitcoin-hits-banana-zone-why-this-bull-run-is-different","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=28162","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Hits \u2018Banana Zone\u2019\u2014Why This Bull Run Is Different"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bitcoin\u2019s explosive push to a new intraday peak above $111,800 on May 22 set the backdrop for Raoul Pal\u2019s spirited, two-hour \u201cDrinks With Raoul\u201d livestream<\/a>. The former hedge-fund macro strategist and Real Vision co-founder insists the rally is still in its early innings. \u201cThe Banana Zone has started. Yes, Bitcoin hit an all-time high. Next up, it\u2019s alts\u2026 Make sure you\u2019re stacked up on your Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p>\n

He defines the \u201cBanana Zone<\/a>\u201d as the phase when liquidity forces investors out the risk curve. That liquidity, he argued, is coming not from inflation but from looming policy interventions in the bond market.<\/p>\n

Why This Bitcoin Cycle Is Different<\/h2>\n

With the US 10-year yield back above 4.4 %, Pal said the move reflects collateral scarcity, not overheating prices:\u201cBond yields are going up. Normally that\u2019s not a good thing\u2026 But inflation is falling all the time. The story is liquidity. There\u2019s a lack of liquidity in the bond market, and when yields get too high the government\u2019s reaction function is always and in every case to print more money.\u201d<\/p>\n

He predicted the Federal Reserve will either relax the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) to let primary dealers absorb Treasuries or \u201cdress up\u201d a form of yield-curve control: \u201cBy July they\u2019ll be using the SLR to allow banks to hold more bonds. That is code for, \u2018Hey, stick bonds on your balance sheet, give some leverage out into the world, and\u2014hey presto\u2014new buyers of bonds.\u2019 If that\u2019s not enough, they\u2019ll slap a four-letter acronym on yield-curve control and pretend it\u2019s something new.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such measures, he said, \u201cremove the left-tail risk\u201d and turbo-charge scarce assets. \u201cIt\u2019s exactly what happened in 2017. Stocks, gold, and especially Bitcoin went to the moon.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pal devoted several minutes to a comparative dollar chart: \u201cTrump\u2019s first [term]<\/a> saw the dollar fall hard. Guess what? It\u2019s replaying faster now\u2026 A weak dollar is the key to making the world go round. The 12-month gain in Bitcoin after big dollar drops has been 119%, 175%, even 592%. That\u2019s the denominator effect.\u201d<\/p>\n

He rejected tariff-war fears as noise: \u201cIt\u2019s just negotiation. They\u2019ll agree something sensible because the US is in the business of selling bonds, not blowing up trade.\u201d<\/p>\n

While celebrating Bitcoin\u2019s milestone, Pal argued that Ethereum and high-beta Layer-1s stand to outperform once the ISM manufacturing index\u2014currently languishing below 50\u2014turns up: \u201cThe financial-conditions index I track is screaming higher and leads ISM by nine months. When ISM crosses 50 on the upside, that\u2019s when you get alt-season. The ETH-BTC ratio is basing; Bitcoin dominance has peaked.\u201d<\/p>\n

Solana, SUI, Dogecoin And $140,000 Per BTC<\/h2>\n

He pointed to Solana and Sui charts \u201cforming classic cup-and-handles,\u201d then offered a tongue-in-cheek take on Dogecoin<\/a>: \u201cThe funniest outcome is Doge eventually outperforming Bitcoin from inception and becoming the hardest currency in the world. That will upset a lot of people\u2014but the chart says it\u2019s possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

Despite the exuberance, Pal inserted a timing caveat linked to his global-M2 model: \u201cLiquidity says we should be over $140,000 by July. But July\u2013August could be a sideways \u2018correction phase 2\u2019 as the dollar reflex-rallies. That\u2019s the spot to take lifestyle chips off the table\u2014if you want. Nothing about the broader cycle changes.\u201d<\/p>\n

He reiterated that the full Banana Zone stretches into 2026, barring an unforeseen policy shock: \u201cEvery cycle people scream \u2018diminishing returns.\u2019 Every cycle they\u2019re wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pal\u2019s thesis boils down to three interlocking forces: policy-driven liquidity<\/a>, a structurally weaker dollar, and bond-market triage that funnels capital into scarce assets. Whether traders accept the \u201cBanana Zone\u201d branding or not, markets appear aligned. \u201cI\u2019ve been telling the same story since the 2022 low\u2014and luckily it\u2019s been right,\u201d Pal concluded. \u201cYou can ignore the wine recommendations, but don\u2019t ignore the liquidity charts.\u201d<\/p>\n

For investors, the message is clear: if the bond market forces the Fed\u2019s hand, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin\u2014and soon, perhaps, for Ether and its brethren\u2014remains upward.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $110,642.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s explosive push to a new intraday peak above $111,800 on May 22 set the backdrop for Raoul Pal\u2019s spirited, two-hour \u201cDrinks With Raoul\u201d livestream. The former hedge-fund macro strategist and Real Vision co-founder insists the rally is still in its early innings. \u201cThe Banana Zone has started. Yes, Bitcoin hit an all-time high. Next […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-28162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28162\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}