{"id":29544,"date":"2025-05-30T22:02:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T22:02:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=29544"},"modified":"2025-05-30T22:02:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T22:02:17","slug":"the-bitcoin-chart-wall-street-doesnt-want-you-to-see","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=29544","title":{"rendered":"The Bitcoin Chart Wall Street Doesn\u2019t Want You To See"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A single data series is up-ending decades of portfolio theory. On 29 May, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, PhD, European head of research at Bitwise, posted a chart showing that the 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year US Treasury-bond futures has collapsed to its most negative reading on record.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Vs. 10-Year US Treasury Futures<\/h2>\n

\u201cThis is probably the most important macro chart for bitcoin right now\u2026 Bitcoin\u2019s 60-day correlation to US 10yr Treasury Futures has declined to the lowest level ON RECORD. Are traditional investors selling US Treasuries to buy Bitcoin?\u201d he wrote<\/a>, framing the plunge as a watershed moment for asset allocation.<\/p>\n

\"Rolling<\/p>\n

Dragosch\u2019s follow-up thread sharpened the point. \u201cUS Treasuries are broken; there has been a structural break in inter-market correlations since at least 2022\u2026 Bitcoin is an alternative portfolio insurance against sovereign default as a counterparty-risk-free asset\u2026 Foreign investors have been moving away from US Treasuries into hard assets like gold<\/a> and apparently bitcoin more recently\u2026 Comparing Bitcoin\u2019s market cap to gold only is an obsolete view\u2014Bitcoin is increasingly competing with sovereign bonds as an alternative store of value.\u201d<\/p>\n

The structural cracks he cites are real. Bitwise\u2019s March \u201cMacro Fault Line\u201d report documented the deepest bear market in long-duration Treasuries in modern history\u2014more than a 40 percent drawdown\u2014alongside yawning deviations in once-stable correlations between bonds, commodities and foreign yields. The research pinned the shift on post-2022 inflation shocks, swelling fiscal deficits and an exodus of foreign reserve managers from US debt.<\/p>\n

BTC Exposes The Cracks In The System<\/h2>\n

Bloomberg\u2019s Asia wealth survey last week confirmed the migration: high-net-worth clients, once \u00fcber-long dollar paper, are rotating into gold, Chinese assets and crypto, while China and other large holders keep trimming Treasury positions in favour of alternative reserves. At the same time, the term premium on the 10-year note\u2014normally a cushion for bond investors\u2014has failed to rise in step with deficits, hinting at latent liquidity risk.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has caught that bid US spot-Bitcoin ETFs drew a record<\/a> net $6.35 billion in May, lifting BlackRock\u2019s IBIT alone to $71 billion in assets under management. Those flows arrived even as Treasury auctions stumbled, with a 20-year bond pricing above the when-issued yield and pushing investors to demand still higher compensation for duration risk.<\/p>\n

Correlations back up Dragosch\u2019s thesis. Bitwise data show BTC\u2019s link to Treasuries is now far weaker than gold\u2019s, yet the cryptocurrency has historically outperformed bullion on days when bond prices fall sharply, underscoring its appeal as \u201cportfolio insurance\u201d in a sovereign-debt drawdown.<\/p>\n

None of this guarantees a one-way trade. Bitwise itself warns that tighter financial conditions can still buffet crypto prices, and BTC retains a meaningful connection to risk assets during acute equity sell-offs. But the direction of travel in sovereign debt<\/a> is forcing investors to look elsewhere for something that cannot default or be debased. As Dragosch put it, \u201cWe are going way, way higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

For traditional portfolio managers whose models still anchor on a positive Treasury hedge, the chart Wall Street \u201cdoesn\u2019t want you to see\u201d is more than a curiosity\u2014it is a sign that the 60\/40 paradigm is splintering. The longer bond markets struggle to fulfil their historic safe-haven role, the louder Bitcoin\u2019s pitch as digital, bearer-asset insurance is likely to become.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $105,780.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A single data series is up-ending decades of portfolio theory. On 29 May, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, PhD, European head of research at Bitwise, posted a chart showing that the 60-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and 10-year US Treasury-bond futures has collapsed to its most negative reading on record. Bitcoin Vs. 10-Year US Treasury Futures \u201cThis is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-29544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29544\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}