{"id":35335,"date":"2025-07-05T15:47:13","date_gmt":"2025-07-05T15:47:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=35335"},"modified":"2025-07-05T15:47:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-05T15:47:13","slug":"u-s-recession-odds-on-polymarket-plunge-to-22-as-trade-tensions-cool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=35335","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Recession Odds on Polymarket Plunge to 22% as Trade Tensions Cool"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bets on a U.S. recession in 2025 have dropped sharply, with odds on crypto prediction platform Polymarket sinking to 22% <\/a>this week, the lowest level since late February.<\/p>\n

Recession fears ballooned earlier this year when the Atlanta Federal Reserve\u2019s GDPNow indicator predicted a 1.5%<\/a> contraction for the first quarter of the year, while the actual fall was softer at 0.5%.<\/p>\n

Tensions escalated in March as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs on what he branded \u201cLiberation Day<\/a>,\u201d rattling investors already wary of a slowing economy. The Fed\u2019s decision to slow the pace of shrinking its balance sheet <\/a>added fuel to concerns.<\/p>\n

By April, Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan were raising red flags. Goldman put recession odds at 45% at the time<\/a>, and Polymarket odds climbed as high as 66%. Another spike came in May after former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Trump\u2019s tariffs could have a \u201ctremendously adverse\u201d effect<\/a> on the economy.<\/p>\n

Yet behind the headlines, negotiations with China progressed. The market coined the so-called TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) trade<\/a>, referencing the U.S. President\u2019s negotiations pattern, where tariffs are announced but then reversed.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month recession odds<\/a> to 30% last month, reflecting a more optimistic outlook as financial conditions eased and trade threats receded.<\/p>\n

Whether a recession hits in 2025 remains uncertain. On Polymarket, a recession bet pays out if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares one or if the U.S. posts two straight quarters of negative GDP growth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bets on a U.S. recession in 2025 have dropped sharply, with odds on crypto prediction platform Polymarket sinking to 22% this week, the lowest level since late February. Recession fears ballooned earlier this year when the Atlanta Federal Reserve\u2019s GDPNow indicator predicted a 1.5% contraction for the first quarter of the year, while the actual […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-35335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35335\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}