{"id":40416,"date":"2025-08-05T01:31:46","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T01:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=40416"},"modified":"2025-08-05T01:31:46","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T01:31:46","slug":"asia-morning-briefing-btc-rebounds-toward-115k-as-etf-flows-return-but-traders-still-price-tail-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=40416","title":{"rendered":"Asia Morning Briefing: BTC Rebounds Toward $115K as ETF Flows Return, but Traders Still Price Tail Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

As East Asia begins its trading day, bitcoin (BTC) is changing hands at just over $115K, staging a modest rebound from last week\u2019s selloff<\/a> that saw over $1 billion in leveraged longs liquidated and BTC briefly test $113K.<\/p>\n

The bounce comes amid signs of stabilization in institutional flows, with Bitwise reporting $18.74 million in net inflows, a potential reversal after one of the largest ETF outflow days on record<\/a> last Friday.<\/p>\n

The latest correction, which marked BTC\u2019s third straight Friday selloff, was driven by a hawkish macro cocktail: weak U.S. jobs data and a fresh wave of tariffs from Washington, triggering a broader risk-off mood in both equities and crypto. Altcoins bore the brunt of the move, with SOL falling nearly 20% on the week and ETH losing close to 10%.<\/p>\n

Yet despite the drop, QCP Capital remains cautiously optimistic.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe broader structural setup remains intact,\u201d the firm wrote in a Monday note, citing BTC\u2019s highest-ever monthly close in July.<\/p>\n

QCP views the selloff as a leverage flush rather than a trend reversal, pointing to historical post-rally shakeouts that cleared the path for renewed accumulation.<\/p>\n

That said, market hedging behavior suggests investors aren\u2019t ruling out deeper downside. On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 49% probability that BTC dips below $100,000 before the end of 2025 \u2014 up 2 percentage points from the day prior.<\/p>\n

The pricing reflects a market that\u2019s still on edge, with downside tail risk priced in despite supportive long-term fundamentals such as regulatory clarity, growing stablecoin adoption, and tokenization initiatives.<\/p>\n

The next catalyst could come during the Asia trading day as U.S. issuers report flows, which typically happens by mid-day Hong Kong time.<\/p>\n

If ETF inflows continue and implied volatility begins to compress, it may provide the confirmation needed for the market to embrace the buy-the-dip narrative and shake off the macro jitters that have kept it stuck in neutral.<\/p>\n

\"(CoinDesk)\"<\/p>\n

Market Movers:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

BTC: <\/strong>Bitcoin is trading back above $115,000, signaling early signs of market stabilization.<\/p>\n

ETH: <\/strong>Ether is holding steady around $3,700, with Polymarket traders showing confidence it will break above $4,000 sometime in August.<\/p>\n

Gold: <\/strong>Gold extended its rally for a third session on Monday, rising to a two-week high as soft U.S. economic data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut, with CME traders now pricing in an 86% chance of that happening.<\/p>\n

Nikkei 225: <\/strong>Asia-Pacific markets opened higher after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled plans to sharply increase tariffs on Indian exports. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 rose 0.54% at the open.<\/p>\n

S&P 500: <\/strong>Stocks rebounded Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.47% to 6,329.94, snapping a four-day losing streak and marking its best session since May.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere in Crypto:<\/strong><\/h2>\n