{"id":41625,"date":"2025-08-12T02:46:45","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T02:46:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=41625"},"modified":"2025-08-12T02:46:45","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T02:46:45","slug":"asia-morning-briefing-bitcoins-thin-liquidity-bounce-raises-questions-on-staying-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=41625","title":{"rendered":"Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin\u2019s Thin-Liquidity Bounce Raises Questions on Staying Power"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery over the past week, rebounding from a dip below $114,000 to trade near $121,000, in what Glassnode described in a recent report<\/a> as a shift from \u201cseller exhaustion to a strong rebound near recent ATHs.\u201d<\/p>\n

The rally, however, came without a surge in spot market participation.<\/p>\n

Glassnode data shows spot trading volumes fell 22% to $5.7 billion, close to their statistical low band, suggesting the rebound has been driven more by positioning shifts than deep conviction buying. The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta flipped 94% toward buy pressure, a sign that aggressive selling has been replaced by renewed demand, but not yet across a broad base of traders.<\/p>\n

On the derivatives side, leveraged traders re-engaged aggressively, Glassnode detailed in its report.<\/p>\n

Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta, a measure of the buy-sell pressure in perps, jumped 88%, funding rates remained elevated, and options open interest climbed 6.7% to $42.4 billion. Yet, volatility pricing collapsed by almost a third, indicating a degree of complacency that has historically preceded large market moves.<\/p>\n

ETF flows offered some relief, with U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETF outflows halving to $311 million from $686 million the prior week. Even so, ETF trade volume fell 27.7% to $13.7 billion, keeping activity near its low band.<\/p>\n

QCP Capital framed the weekend surge, which briefly pushed BTC above $122,000, as a function of thin order books and a broader risk-on shift in global markets.<\/p>\n

\u201cCrypto staged an impressive comeback over the weekend during thin, low-liquidity trading hours,\u201d the Singapore-based trading firm wrote, noting that the bounce aligned with a rebound in U.S. equities and growing expectations for a September Fed rate cut.<\/p>\n

While on-chain activity improved, active addresses jumped 8.4% to 793,000, and fee volume rose 10%. Glassnode cautioned that elevated profitability levels could quickly turn into selling pressure if sentiment shifts. With 94.1% of supply in profit and the realized profit-to-loss ratio climbing to 1.9, the market may be nearing a point where profit-taking accelerates.<\/p>\n

The combination of thin liquidity, bullish derivatives positioning, and macro-driven optimism leaves Bitcoin primed for volatile moves as it approaches all-time highs, with the next test likely coming from Tuesday\u2019s U.S. CPI release.<\/p>\n

Polymarket traders<\/a> lean toward a modest uptick in line with consensus that would likely keep BTC consolidating, with hotter prints posing a short-term headwind by delaying Fed cuts and softer readings offering a potential breakout catalyst if ETF flows and spot activity strengthen.<\/p>\n

\"(CoinDesk)\"<\/p>\n

Market Movers<\/strong><\/h2>\n

BTC: <\/strong>Bitcoin is trading at $118k as traders pull back and position themselves for the possibility that Tuesday’s CPI report might break BTC’s momentum.<\/p>\n

ETH: <\/strong>Ethereum is trading at $4200. Analysts say<\/a> that ETH’s rally is partially due to increased capacity on-chain and lower DeFi costs.<\/p>\n

Gold: <\/strong>Gold slid to $3,355.13 as upbeat risk sentiment and Trump\u2019s pledge to exclude gold from tariffs weighed on safe-haven demand, though losses were cushioned by rising Fed rate cut bets ahead of this week\u2019s U.S. inflation data.<\/p>\n

Nikkei 225: <\/strong>Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high after the U.S.-China trade truce was extended, while investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s expected rate cut.<\/p>\n

S&P 500: <\/strong>U.S. stocks eased, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and just under its record, as investors await new inflation data .Meanwhile, Citigroup and UBS lifted their year-end S&P 500 targets, citing easing policy risks and solid earnings, with Citi raising its forecast to 6,600 and UBS to 6,100.<\/p>\n

Elsewhere in Crypto<\/strong><\/h2>\n