{"id":42875,"date":"2025-08-19T08:31:40","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T08:31:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=42875"},"modified":"2025-08-19T08:31:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T08:31:40","slug":"crypto-market-cycle-top-or-bear-trap-analysts-weigh-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=42875","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Market Cycle Top or Bear Trap? Analysts Weigh In"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Crypto markets have corrected by 7.3% with $340 billion leaving the space since their all-time high on August 14.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has led the losses<\/a>, retreating 7.5% from its peak price, while Ethereum has lost 10% from its 2025 high, having failed to notch a new peak.<\/p>\n

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\u201cRemarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs, so many people start to fret about the cycle top,\u201d observed<\/a> analyst and economist Alex Kr\u00fcger on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Kr\u00fcger is among many analysts and industry observers who have recently opined that the four-year crypto market cycle is a thing of the past.<\/p>\n

Is the 4 Year Cycle Dead?<\/h2>\n

\u201cThe concept of a 4-year cycle in 2025 is misplaced,\u201d he said, arguing that the four-year cycle \u201cdied two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro-driven.\u201d<\/p>\n

The end of the 2021 market cycle was Federal Reserve-driven, not Bitcoin-specific, he said. The cycle ended because the Fed went \u201cultra-hawkish\u201d in January 2022, not due to natural Bitcoin dynamics.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin now trades more like a stock \u2013 lower volatility, slower ascent since spot ETF<\/a> approvals changed market dynamics, he said before adding:<\/p>\n

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\u201cI have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole<\/a> on Friday, which could give some insight into September\u2019s rate decision. A hawkish speech to reduce the odds of a September cut would be bearish, said Kr\u00fcger, who concluded:<\/p>\n

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\u201cBull markets don\u2019t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

A Big Bear Trap?<\/h2>\n

If the four-year cycle is still intact, the current correction is expected and could be a bear trap.<\/p>\n

In 2017, crypto markets fell by 40% in September before powering to new peaks three months later, and exactly the same happened in 2021 with a 25% September slump before fresh highs.<\/p>\n

This chart has been doing the rounds, showing that previous bull markets have lasted nine months and the bear trap, or big pullback, always came in the sixth month, which is where we are now.<\/p>\n

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Bitcoin Macro bull-cycles<\/p>\n

2011:
\n\u2013 Duration 9 Months (after ATH)
\n\u2013 Bear trap in Month 6<\/p>\n

2013:
\n\u2013 Duration 9 Months
\n\u2013 Bear trap in Month 6<\/p>\n

2017:
\n\u2013 Duration 9 Months
\n\u2013 Bear trap in Month 6<\/p>\n

2021:
\n\u2013 Duration 9 Months
\n\u2013 Bear trap in Month 6<\/p>\n

2025:
\n\u2013 We just entered Month 6\u2026<\/p>\n

Do\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/2vp9a9ylOr<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 \u1d1b\u0280\u1d00\u1d04\u1d07\u0280 (@DeFiTracer) August 18, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n