{"id":53921,"date":"2025-10-21T08:16:49","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T08:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=53921"},"modified":"2025-10-21T08:16:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T08:16:49","slug":"4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-a-big-misunderstanding-planb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=53921","title":{"rendered":"4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is a \u2018Big Misunderstanding\u2019 \u2013 PlanB"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model has started to question his own creation and the relevance of four-year market cycles.<\/p>\n<p>Bears think $126,000 was the top, and BTC will fall below $100,000, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because of the four-year cycle, he observed before adding:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cIMO that is a BIG misunderstanding.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>There have been four-year cycles that revolve around the Bitcoin halving, \u201cBut three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern,\u201d he said. It is also \u201cabsolutely not guaranteed\u201d that the top is again 18 months after the previous halving, which is now in October.<\/p>\n<h2>This Cycle Is Different \u2026 Or Is It?<\/h2>\n<p>The analyst then suggested that the cycle top could very well be in 2026, or 2027, or 2028. \u201cActually, I am much more interested in the average price level than the top (or the bottom),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cWhat I do know is: there has not been a fundamental Bitcoin phase transition yet in this cycle,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEither the big jump has yet to come, or we have transitioned into a more stable price regime, dominated by institutions, fund mandates, and rebalancing \u2026 Both scenarios are very bullish for Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Bears think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because \u2026 the 4 year cycle!?<\/p>\n<p>IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tehnZ4rRab\">pic.twitter.com\/tehnZ4rRab<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 PlanB (@100trillionUSD) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/100trillionUSD\/status\/1980259495902109832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 20, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u2018PlanB\u2019 is not the only analyst who thinks the bull market has longer to run. Willy Woo <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/woonomic\/status\/1980285024508510564\">observed<\/a> that the liquidity driving the cycle top of the last bull market came from from paper derivative markets, which is a short term instrument.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThis cycle is shaping up differently. Paper has already started dropping away, while longer term spot liquidity is holding up for now.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>When Bitcoin dropped below $104,000 last week, many <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/analyst-bitcoin-drop-near-101700-could-confirm-a-new-bear-market\/\">feared<\/a> a bear market had just begun and were wishing for the price to go up a bit more so that they could just exit at a decent level, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/rektcapital\/status\/1980260596806275189\">said<\/a> analyst \u2018Rekt Capital.\u2019\u00a0They added that \u201cpeople feel differently about price now,\u201d after the recovery, but that was posted before today\u2019s slump.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin Price Tanks Again<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin has tanked more than 3% over the past few hours, crashing back to $107,700 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session.\u00a0It appears to have hit support around the <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/this-is-the-critical-level-to-watch-for-bitcoins-price-this-next-week\/\">critical<\/a> $108,000 level and the plunge had stopped there at the time of writing.<\/p>\n<p>What remains clear is that crypto markets are still very jittery and need some solid fundamentals to get the boost that analysts are looking for.<\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-a-big-misunderstanding-planb\/\">4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is a \u2018Big Misunderstanding\u2019 \u2013 PlanB<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model has started to question his own creation and the relevance of four-year market cycles. Bears think $126,000 was the top, and BTC will fall below $100,000, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because of the four-year cycle, he observed before adding: \u201cIMO that is a BIG [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-53921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53921\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}