{"id":57034,"date":"2025-11-06T11:16:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-06T11:16:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=57034"},"modified":"2025-11-06T11:16:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T11:16:45","slug":"history-says-bitcoin-btc-may-fall-60-if-this-key-support-fails-to-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=57034","title":{"rendered":"History Says Bitcoin (BTC) May Fall 60% If This Key Support Fails to Hold"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bitcoin is testing a key level that has previously marked the start of major market corrections. The 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), now near $102,000, has served as a long-term support line in multiple past cycles. Its failure has often led to extended drawdowns.<\/p>\n

As of press time, the asset was priced at $103,000, showing a modest 1% gain over the last 24 hours. Over the past week, it has declined 7%, with daily trading volume near $61.7 billion.<\/p>\n

50W SMA and Historical Breakdown Patterns<\/h2>\n

Market history shows that each time Bitcoin lost the 50W SMA, a sharp correction followed. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed<\/a> to several examples where this support failed: a 50% drop in 2011, 67% in 2014, 60% in 2018, and 66% in late 2021. The 2020 crash during the COVID outbreak also saw a 55% decline after the same breakdown.<\/p>\n

Martinez stated,<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cBitcoin has seen an average 60% drop each time it has lost the 50W SMA as support.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Based on that pattern, a confirmed break below $102,000 could project a potential move toward $40,000. This level is now being viewed as a make-or-break area for Bitcoin\u2019s longer-term structure.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a>
Source: Ali Matinez\/X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Key Short-Term Levels and Price Reaction<\/h2>\n

Analyst Lennaert Snyder also marked<\/a> $102,000 as a short-term support level to monitor. He noted that the 4-hour chart still shows an uptrend and added,<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cI prefer to hold key $102,000 support to not lose the 4H uptrend.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

He also pointed to $107,100 as a key level for bulls to reclaim.<\/p>\n

Analyst Ted observed<\/a> that Bitcoin moved below the EMA-50 and emphasized the importance of the weekly close. He explained,<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cA weekly close below EMA-50 means the dump is just the beginning.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, key liquidity levels sit<\/a> near $90,000 and $126,000, with the possibility of a drop to fill the CME gap before any recovery.<\/p>\n

Market Structure, MACD Signal, and Open Interest<\/h2>\n

Linton Worm pointed<\/a> to a confirmed bearish MACD cross and linked it to previous cycle tops. \u201cIn 2021, it predicted the crash. Now the same is happening,\u201d he said, adding that $70,000 could be the next support to watch if pressure continues.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, data from Darkfost showed<\/a> a sharp drop in Bitcoin open interest across major exchanges. Since October 10, open interest has declined by over $10 billion, led by Binance, which saw a $4 billion decrease. Bybit and Gate.io followed with drops of $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Leverage remains low, and confidence among traders appears limited as the correction unfolds.<\/p>\n

The post History Says Bitcoin (BTC) May Fall 60% If This Key Support Fails to Hold<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin is testing a key level that has previously marked the start of major market corrections. The 50-week simple moving average (50W SMA), now near $102,000, has served as a long-term support line in multiple past cycles. Its failure has often led to extended drawdowns. As of press time, the asset was priced at $103,000, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-57034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=57034"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57034\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=57034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=57034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=57034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}