{"id":58974,"date":"2025-11-18T02:01:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T02:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=58974"},"modified":"2025-11-18T02:01:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T02:01:31","slug":"bitcoin-bear-market-confirmed-or-false-alarm-experts-sound-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=58974","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bear Market: Confirmed Or False Alarm? Experts Sound Off"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bitcoin\u2019s drop back into the mid-$90,000s has reignited the debate: is this the start of a true bear market, or a sharp reset inside an ongoing uptrend? Analysts are converging on the same battleground levels but differ on what they imply.<\/p>\n

Has The Bitcoin Bear Market Arrived?<\/h2>\n

Macro swing-trader \u201cThe Great Mattsby\u201d (@matthughes13) argues<\/a> that, structurally, Bitcoin is still tracking a familiar pattern. He reminds followers that: \u201cBack in 2024, BTC consolidated for 7 months in the $70k-$50k zone before breaking out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Using monthly Fibonacci retracements from the March 2024 high to the November 2022 low, he notes that Bitcoin previously tagged the 0.618 retracement at $51,518, \u201ceven wicked below, then bounced.\u201d On a fresh set of fibs drawn from the October 2025 top to the August 2024 low, that same key level now sits at $96,975. Price is currently trading slightly below it, similar to the 2024 wick.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

With two weeks left in November, Mattsby stresses that the close matters more than the intramonth volatility: \u201cIf BTC holds this $96-$97k zone for a monthly candle close in November, this could mirror last year\u2019s setup: a couple more months retesting this zone, then a run to new all-time highs would be possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the weekly timeframe, however, market analyst Rekt Capital is less comfortable with the latest breakdown. For him, the 50-week exponential moving average has been a core \u201cbullish structure\u201d of this cycle. He writes: \u201cBear Markets confirm when the bullish structures that supported continued bullish momentum start to fail.\u201d<\/p>\n

His chart shows<\/a> the current weekly candle pushing decisively below the 50-week EMA, which has previously acted as support. He sees \u201ca high probability the Weekly Candle Closes below the 50-week EMA,\u201d adding that the reaction in the coming weeks will be \u201cmacro trend-defining.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

The key question, in his view: \u201cCan BTC produce enough upside in the coming weeks to invalidate this Weekly Close below the 50 EMA and reclaim the EMA as support?\u201d<\/p>\n

What Bitcoin On-Chain Data Says<\/h2>\n

On-chain data sends a different signal. Analyst Frank (@FrankAFetter) shared Checkonchain\u2019s Short-Term Holder MVRV chart<\/a>, which tracks the profitability of recent buyers relative to their cost basis with standard-deviation bands. Bitcoin\u2019s latest flush has driven the metric to the lower, negative-one-standard-deviation band, a zone previously tagged near $49,000 and $74,000 before meaningful bounces.<\/p>\n

Frank\u2019s approach is straightforward: \u201cI\u2019m a buyer of standard deviation moves to the downside; they don\u2019t come often, but they tend to be excellent opportunities.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Short-Term
\nIs The CryptoQuant CEO Right Again?<\/p>\n

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju focuses on who is selling this dip. He characterizes the move as internal rotation among long-term players rather than broad distribution: \u201cThis dip is just long-term holders rotating among themselves. Old Bitcoiners are selling to tradfi players, who will also hold for the long run.\u201d<\/p>\n

He recalls that his earlier top call was driven by \u201cOG whales<\/a> \u2026 dumping hard,\u201d but argues that the landscape has shifted: \u201cETFs, MSTR, and other new channels kept injecting fresh liquidity. Onchain inflows are still strong. This dip is basically OG whales dragging the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, he points to \u201csovereign funds<\/a>, pension funds, multi-asset funds, and corporate treasuries\u201d as building even larger, persistent liquidity channels and concludes: \u201cThe cycle theory is dead until these liquidity channels stop running.\u201d Notably, Ki Young Ju correctly predicted in March this year that Bitcoin could see a \u201c6\u201312 months of bearish or sideways price action.\u201d<\/p>\n

In short, the technical picture has clearly weakened, with the 50-week EMA and the $96,000\u2013$97,000 monthly Fibonacci zone now acting as critical lines in the sand. If Bitcoin can reclaim the weekly EMA and secure a monthly close above that 0.618 retracement, the case for this being a deep but standard consolidation remains credible.<\/p>\n

A sustained failure at these levels, by contrast, would lend significant weight to the bear-market argument. For now, the verdict hinges on how the next few weekly and monthly candles close, not on the intraday noise.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $93,938.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s drop back into the mid-$90,000s has reignited the debate: is this the start of a true bear market, or a sharp reset inside an ongoing uptrend? Analysts are converging on the same battleground levels but differ on what they imply. Has The Bitcoin Bear Market Arrived? Macro swing-trader \u201cThe Great Mattsby\u201d (@matthughes13) argues that, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-58974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58974"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58974\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=58974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=58974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}