{"id":59291,"date":"2025-11-19T15:01:36","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T15:01:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=59291"},"modified":"2025-11-19T15:01:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T15:01:36","slug":"bitcoin-quantum-threat-top-expert-predicts-breakthrough-before-next-us-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=59291","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Quantum Threat: Top Expert Predicts Breakthrough Before Next US Election"},"content":{"rendered":"
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One of the world\u2019s most respected quantum computing researchers has sharply pulled forward the perceived timeline for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer \u2013 and Bitcoin is suddenly in the crosshairs of the debate.<\/p>\n

In a new post on his Shtetl-Optimized blog, theoretical computer scientist Scott Aaronson writes that, given the \u201ccurrent staggering rate of hardware progress,\u201d he now thinks<\/a> \u201cit\u2019s a live possibility that we\u2019ll have a fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor\u2019s algorithm before the next US presidential election.\u201d He frames the post as an attempt to process \u201ctoo much happening\u201d in quantum computing, citing a string of advances across hardware and verifiable quantum advantage experiments, and concludes: \u201cEvidence continues to pile up that we are not living in the universe of Gil Kalai and the other quantum computing skeptics.\u201d#<\/p>\n

What This Means For Bitcoin<\/h2>\n

For Bitcoin, the key words are \u201cfault-tolerant\u201d and \u201cShor\u2019s algorithm.\u201d Bitcoin\u2019s ECDSA signatures over the secp256k1 elliptic curve derive their security from the hardness of the discrete logarithm problem. A sufficiently large, error-corrected quantum computer running Shor\u2019s algorithm<\/a> can, in principle, solve both integer factorization and discrete logs in polynomial time \u2013 directly undermining the assumptions behind today\u2019s public-key cryptography.<\/p>\n

The market reaction crystallized on X. Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter highlighted<\/a> Aaronson\u2019s line about a pre-election Shor-capable device and stressed that the messenger matters: \u201cthis guy is one of the most notable quantum academics\/researchers\/educators and is known as major quantum SKEPTIC \/ realist.\u201d He added that Aaronson is \u201cspecifically known for not selling out to quantum vaporware companies,\u201d arguing that \u201cpeople don\u2019t understand the significance of HIM saying this\u201d and remarking, \u201cA lot changed this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Crypto voices quickly connected the dots to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. \u201cI am honestly worried for bitcoin. This is an opportunity for Ethereum,\u201d wrote one commentator, while StarkWare co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson replied, \u201cI\u2019m honestly worried for both.\u201d The message: no major chain that relies on classical public-key cryptography is immune to a sufficiently mature quantum adversary.<\/p>\n

Others urged the industry not to jump from \u201clive possibility\u201d to imminent catastrophe. Haseeb Qureshi argued<\/a> it is \u201cimportant not to scaremonger here about quantum timelines,\u201d drawing a line between demonstrating Shor\u2019s algorithm and breaking real-world 256-bit elliptic-curve keys. Running Shor to factor a moderately sized number would already be a landmark, but, he noted, scaling to numbers with \u201chundreds of digits\u201d would require a \u201chuge degree of scaling and engineering.\u201d<\/p>\n

To anchor expectations, Qureshi pointed to prediction platform Metaculus, where forecasters currently place the first RSA challenge number being factored by Shor\u2019s algorithm around the mid-2030s, with a wide distribution around that date. Notably, that median has moved dramatically in just a few years; in 2022, community expectations were centered a couple of decades later. Progress, in other words, is running ahead of earlier forecasts, but still not on the scale of \u201cnext cycle, everything breaks.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cImportant to take seriously. But not imminent by any means. All blockchains will need to adapt<\/a> to post-quantum cryptography. An orderly transition probably needs at least 4 years, which means we have the next few years to decide on a viable upgrade path,\u201d Qureshi concluded.<\/p>\n

Developers Need To Get Serious Now<\/h2>\n

Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven, an applied lab of builders & technologists at the intersection of quantum computing and cryptography formed in 2024, countered<\/a>: \u201cWe don\u2019t need to panic, but we need to get serious. I wish people would stop referencing Metaculus. It\u2019s just a random survey platform without any mechanism to filter people w\/ authority from randos on the internet.\u201d<\/p>\n

While Pruden acknowledged that it is \u201cnotoriously difficult to predict how the development of a quantum computer will play out,\u201d he warned that technologies like quantum computing or AI \u201coften happen not in a linear way, but as a series of breakthroughs.\u201d He added: \u201cEven if it\u2019s only a 1% chance in the next five years, given that it breaks **the fundamental security guarantee which secures assets onchain**, why shouldn\u2019t this be the top priority for every blockchain? Whenever it does happen, it will be the only thing that matters.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Bitcoin specifically, the risk is unevenly distributed. Pay-to-public-key (P2PK) outputs and any address that has already revealed its public key on-chain are inherently more exposed in a post-quantum world than single-use pay-to-public-key-hash (P2PKH) outputs that never reuse addresses. Long-dormant early coins and heavily reused addresses would be natural targets<\/a> once a quantum attacker can derive private keys from known public keys at scale.<\/p>\n

The harder problem is governance and timing. Aaronson\u2019s \u201clive possibility before the next US presidential election\u201d does not mean a Bitcoin-breaking machine exists or is guaranteed on that schedule. It does, however, narrow the psychological distance between quantum timelines and Bitcoin\u2019s upgrade horizon. Experts like Charles Edwards<\/a> already argue that an \u201corderly transition\u201d to post-quantum or hybrid signatures would require multiple years of planning and coordination across nodes, miners, wallets and exchanges, and should be completed before\u2014not after\u2014ECDSA is practically breakable.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $91,417.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the world\u2019s most respected quantum computing researchers has sharply pulled forward the perceived timeline for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer \u2013 and Bitcoin is suddenly in the crosshairs of the debate. In a new post on his Shtetl-Optimized blog, theoretical computer scientist Scott Aaronson writes that, given the \u201ccurrent staggering rate of hardware […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-59291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}