{"id":59415,"date":"2025-11-20T05:46:52","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T05:46:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=59415"},"modified":"2025-11-20T05:46:52","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T05:46:52","slug":"bitcoin-btc-could-be-repeating-a-q1-2025-cycle-and-the-final-shakeout-may-be-close","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=59415","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Repeating a Q1 2025 Cycle, And the Final Shakeout May Be Close"},"content":{"rendered":"
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After a severe sell-off, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized around $91,500. Pseudonymous crypto market analyst Axel Bitblaze has now found that the asset\u2019s latest decline appears to be forming the pattern seen in the first quarter of 2025, when the asset topped in January and fell 17% while the S&P 500 continued to hit new highs.<\/p>\n

At the time, he noted that many believed Bitcoin was simply cooling off. However, four weeks later, the S&P 500 also peaked, and both markets plunged in tandem, which ended up triggering a six-week stretch in which BTC dropped 25% and the index slid 21%.<\/p>\n

One Last Bearish Trigger?<\/h2>\n

Bitblaze argued that current conditions look strikingly similar. Bitcoin peaked on October 6 and has already fallen about 18% in recent weeks, while the S&P 500 has only now begun to turn lower.<\/p>\n

According to this breakdown, the sequence resembles the same cycle \u2013 Bitcoin begins to fall early without a clear bearish catalyst; equities continue to rise because they typically lag; investors eventually sense broader weakness and stocks break down; BTC\u2019s sell-off briefly intensifies; Bitcoin regains strength sooner than equities; a final market spill follows; and then a reversal takes shape. Bitblaze said<\/a> the market is likely in phase three or four of this pattern, with most of Bitcoin\u2019s downside already realized.<\/p>\n

The analyst added that if markets are waiting for one last bearish trigger, it may already be forming, while pointing to rising Japanese bond yields, liquidity pressures at smaller US banks, and market sensitivity to rumors involving high-profile political figures.<\/p>\n

As such, the current downturn is mostly tied to the first two factors, which are potentially \u201cslow burn\u201d problems that often erupt without warning.<\/p>\n

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\u201cSo yeah\u2026 feels like we\u2019re close to the end of the damage, not the start. But one more shakeout wouldn\u2019t surprise me at all.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bearish Forces Still Dominate<\/h2>\n

Despite a slight improvement in short-term signals, another analyst, Axel Adler Junior, believes<\/a> the BTC market structure remains clearly bearish. The fast version of the Bull-Bear Structure Index has climbed from a critical reading of -41.89 on November 17 to -27.82, which indicates that bearish pressure has eased as prices stabilize near $91,000. However, he noted that the indicator is still well below the -25% threshold, and shows negative taker flow, derivatives pressure, and ETF outflows continue to dominate.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the slow, smoothed version of the index has weakened further after falling from -14.04 to -21.90, which means that deeper structural bearish trends are still gaining strength.<\/p>\n

Additionally, Coinbase Premium Gap has dropped<\/a> to -$90, which happens to be one of its lowest levels this year. This signals weakened institutional participation. The premium typically rises when major players accumulate BTC, but the current negative reading shows retail-dominated trading on Binance is setting the tone. Analysts warn that this pattern can amplify volatility and selling pressure until institutional buyers return<\/p>\n

The post Bitcoin (BTC) Could Be Repeating a Q1 2025 Cycle, And the Final Shakeout May Be Close<\/a> appeared first on CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a severe sell-off, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized around $91,500. Pseudonymous crypto market analyst Axel Bitblaze has now found that the asset\u2019s latest decline appears to be forming the pattern seen in the first quarter of 2025, when the asset topped in January and fell 17% while the S&P 500 continued to hit new highs. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-59415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59415"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59415\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}