{"id":60622,"date":"2025-11-27T04:01:32","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T04:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=60622"},"modified":"2025-11-27T04:01:32","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T04:01:32","slug":"has-bitcoin-and-crypto-really-bottomed-on-chain-firm-responds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=60622","title":{"rendered":"Has Bitcoin And Crypto Really Bottomed? On-Chain Firm Responds"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Has Bitcoin genuinely carved out a cycle low or just staged another reflexive bounce? After briefly threatening to lose the $80,000 level and then rebounding toward $88,000, the \u201cbottom\u201d debate is back in full force. On-chain analytics firm Santiment has weighed in \u2013 and its answer is cautiously skeptical.<\/p>\n

Did Bitcoin Just Print Its Cycle Low?<\/h2>\n

The firm begins<\/a> by criticizing the way market labels are thrown around. \u201cThe terms \u2018bull market\u2019, \u2018bear market\u2019, \u2018topped\u2019, or \u2018bottomed\u2019 can truly mean whatever narrative a trader, investor, or community wants it to mean,\u201d Santiment notes, pointing out that few commentators define a clear timeframe when they call a top or bottom. This opens the door to extreme confirmation bias \u201cafter the uptrend or downtrend of prices are already well established.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the recent move off sub-$80,000 levels has been enough for some to argue that forced selling<\/a> is behind us. Santiment acknowledges that \u201ccontent that covers whether the \u2018bottom\u2019 has been established will always get some anxious traders excited again,\u201d but stresses that price alone is not sufficient evidence.<\/p>\n

On sentiment, the data looks contrarian-constructive. Santiment highlights \u201chow far traders\u2019 optimism regarding Bitcoin (as an investment) can fall after monthly gains are no longer a guarantee.\u201d Its social metrics show an uptick in declarations that crypto is in a bear market and a rise in bearish commentary.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe uptick in declaration of crypto being in a bear market, and rise of bearish sentiment<\/a> are both clearly great signs,\u201d the firm writes, reminding readers that \u201cmost major turnarounds occur when retail\u2019s hope is mainly lost.\u201d The open question: \u201cIs the crowd\u2019s hopes and dreams of getting their lambos really truly gone?\u201d<\/p>\n

Bearish Arguments Still Predominant<\/h2>\n

Derivatives positioning adds nuance. Aggregated funding rates show meaningful short exposure, but not yet at the extremes seen after the October 6 all-time high. \u201cWhen we see many shorts like this [\u2026] it often stops the downtrend in its tracks,\u201d Santiment explains, recalling how \u201cmany shorted about a week after the October 6th all-time high, and there was a temporary relief rally in late October as a result.\u201d For now, though, \u201cwe\u2019re not seeing quite the level of bets against the price of Bitcoin [\u2026] just yet anyways.\u201d<\/p>\n

Profitability metrics paint a similar picture. Both 30-day and 365-day MVRV remain negative, indicating the average holder sits on unrealized losses. Santiment underlines that MVRV \u201cshows the ratio between the current price and the average price of every token acquired,\u201d and that as it rises, \u201cmore market participants become willing sellers.\u201d With MVRV still depressed, the firm argues that \u201ca rebound above $90K again soon wouldn\u2019t be a major surprise at all.\u201d<\/p>\n

The more concerning signals come from network fundamentals and holder structure. \u201cIf we look at the overall utility of Bitcoin, however, things look a bit dicey,\u201d Santiment warns. Weekly new addresses have fallen from over 3.37 million at a mid-December 2023 peak to about 2.21 million now. Weekly active addresses are down from more than 963,900 to roughly 729,200. That underscores \u201cdeclining utility\u201d at a time when a durable bottom would typically coincide with stabilization or re-acceleration in network use.<\/p>\n

Even more problematic is the whale-to-retail shift. Santiment calls this \u201cone other major elephant in the room that should bring you a bit of hesitance that \u2018the bottom is in\u2019.\u201d Addresses holding 10\u201310,000 BTC \u201ccontinue to shrink their collective supply held,\u201d while wallets with less than 0.1 BTC \u201ccontinue to grow theirs.\u201d<\/p>\n

The firm is blunt: \u201cThis is the wrong combination to mark a bottom.\u201d Since COVID-19, \u201cinstitutionals have driven up<\/a> just about every bull rally,\u201d and this 10\u201310,000 BTC cohort \u201chad a lot to do with the October 6th all-time high.\u201d Yet \u201cby October 8th [\u2026] [they] began to flat-line their holdings, and have been shrinking them for about six weeks straight now,\u201d while \u201csmall wallets [\u2026] are the ones scooping up dips in hopes that they \u2018catch the falling knife\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

The verdict is split across timeframes. \u201cOverall, data points to the most likely scenario being a short-term bounce,\u201d backed by negative MVRV<\/a> and vocal retail panic. But \u201cBitcoin clawing its way all the way to six figures looks like a stretch when [\u2026] whale bags are continuously appearing to be in \u2018sell mode\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

Santiment concludes that \u201cthe long-term direction is still pointing to down\u201d as long as \u201cdeclining utility and declining whale and shark holdings\u201d persist \u2013 while reminding investors that \u201ccrypto markets could be full of surprises\u201d as the New Year approaches.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $86,884.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Has Bitcoin genuinely carved out a cycle low or just staged another reflexive bounce? After briefly threatening to lose the $80,000 level and then rebounding toward $88,000, the \u201cbottom\u201d debate is back in full force. On-chain analytics firm Santiment has weighed in \u2013 and its answer is cautiously skeptical. Did Bitcoin Just Print Its Cycle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-60622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=60622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60622\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=60622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=60622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=60622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}