{"id":61576,"date":"2025-12-03T04:01:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T04:01:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=61576"},"modified":"2025-12-03T04:01:32","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T04:01:32","slug":"tether-debate-heats-up-as-former-bank-analyst-refutes-hayes-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=61576","title":{"rendered":"Tether Debate Heats Up As Former Bank Analyst Refutes Hayes\u2019 Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, warned late last month that Tether\u2019s shift into Bitcoin and gold could leave the stablecoin exposed if those assets tumble.<\/p>\n

According to Hayes, a roughly 30% drop<\/a> in Tether\u2019s BTC and gold holdings could erase the company\u2019s equity and leave USDT vulnerable.<\/p>\n

His comments touched off fresh debate about how much of the company\u2019s true financial strength is visible to the market.<\/p>\n

\n

The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC<\/a> that should in theory moon as the price of money falls.\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/ZGhQRP4SVF<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 29, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Tether Is Far Stronger Than It Looks: Former Citi Analyst<\/h2>\n

A former Citi research lead, who goes by the name \u201cJoseph\u201d, pushed back on Hayes\u2019s scenario. Based on reports<\/a>, Joseph said public attestations only show the assets that directly back outstanding USDT and do not capture the full corporate balance sheet.<\/p>\n

\n

I spent 100\u2019s of hours writing research on tether for @Citi<\/a>. @CryptoHayes<\/a> missed a few key points.<\/p>\n

1) \ud835\udc13\ud835\udc21\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2b \ud835\udc1d\ud835\udc22\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc1d \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2c =\/ \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc25\ud835\udc25 \ud835\udc1c\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc29\ud835\udc28\ud835\udc2b\ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc1e \ud835\udc1a\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc2c\ud835\udc1e\ud835\udc2d\ud835\udc2c<\/p>\n

When tether generates $ they have a separate equity balance sheet which they don\u2019t\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/pHSRr245Up<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Joseph (@JosephA140) November 30, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

He told reporters he spent hundreds of hours reviewing filings and market data and estimates Tether\u2019s total equity could be in the $50\u2013$100 billion range \u2014 a cushion much larger than what critics point to when they focus on attested reserves.<\/p>\n

Reported Buffers<\/h2>\n

According to Joseph\u2019s calculations, Tether holds about $120 billion in US Treasuries that are earning roughly 4%, which he says could generate about $10 billion a year in net income.<\/p>\n

He also cited other corporate assets that are not part of public reserve snapshots \u2014 equity stakes, mining operations, and additional Bitcoin holdings \u2014 all of which, he argues, strengthen Tether\u2019s overall capital position.<\/p>\n

Paolo Ardoino, Tether\u2019s CEO, has publicly cited roughly $30 billion in \u201cgroup equity\u201d as part of the firm\u2019s buffer against shocks.<\/p>\n

\n

re: Tether FUD<\/p>\n

From latest attestation announcement (Q3 2025):<\/p>\n

\u201cTether will continue to maintain a multi-billion-dollar excess reserve buffer and an overall proprietary Group equity approaching $30 billion.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tether had (at end of Q3 2025) ~7B in excess equity (on top of the\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 Paolo Ardoino \"\ud83e\udd16\" (@paoloardoino) November 30, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Hayes\u2019s Warning And The Transparency Question<\/p>\n

Hayes\u2019s point, however, rests on a simple math worry: volatile assets can move fast, and marked declines would reduce the value of reserves.<\/p>\n

He framed Tether\u2019s move into Bitcoin and gold as a macro hedge against expected rate cuts, but said that hedge could backfire under a sharp sell-off.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Reports have noted that because attestations focus on backing for USDT supply, they may not reveal how much of the company\u2019s other assets would be available in a crisis \u2014 a gap that keeps some investors uneasy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What The Debate Means For Markets<\/p>\n

The clash highlights two facts. One: there are sizable numbers involved \u2014 $120 billion in Treasuries, a roughly $30 billion equity figure cited by management, and the $50\u2013$100 billion range estimated by Joseph.<\/p>\n

Two: the core issue is disclosure. If Tether\u2019s broader holdings can be marshalled quickly in a stress event, the company may handle big swings. If not, volatility could create trouble for short-term liquidity even if long-term equity is large.<\/p>\n

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, warned late last month that Tether\u2019s shift into Bitcoin and gold could leave the stablecoin exposed if those assets tumble. According to Hayes, a roughly 30% drop in Tether\u2019s BTC and gold holdings could erase the company\u2019s equity and leave USDT vulnerable. His comments touched off fresh debate about how […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-61576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61576\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}