{"id":65205,"date":"2025-12-25T14:01:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-25T14:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=65205"},"modified":"2025-12-25T14:01:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-25T14:01:40","slug":"data-suggest-bitcoin-may-be-entering-a-new-bear-phase-warns-cryptoquant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=65205","title":{"rendered":"Data Suggest Bitcoin May Be Entering A New Bear Phase, Warns CryptoQuant"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below the pivotal $90,000 mark with no signs of recovery, the prospect of a bear market is becoming increasingly relevant. Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant has shared insights suggesting that the current market dynamics indicate a transition rather than just a temporary pullback.<\/p>\n

Could Bitcoin Be Shifting Into A Bear Phase?\u00a0<\/h2>\n

In a report <\/a>released recently, Woominkyu examined the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), noting that its return to the 0.5 zone on October 21 was interpreted as a cooling phase, rather than indicative of a market peak.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In the weeks following this observation, Bitcoin\u2019s price has seen a noticeable decline alongside a similar drop in BCMI, suggesting that the market is not only experiencing a cooling period but has also reset in terms of price and on-chain momentum.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

Historically, significant cycle bottoms for Bitcoin in 2019 and 2023 occurred when BCMI levels fell between the 0.25 and 0.35 range. These levels are often associated with full sentiment compression and a structural reset <\/a>within the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Currently, while BCMI remains below equilibrium as seen in the chart above, and it is still above the historical bottom zones. This data suggests that Bitcoin may be shifting into a bear phase rather than recovering from a simple pullback.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According to Woominkyu, a more stable bottom may only materialize if BCMI revisits levels seen during the previous cycles from 2019 to 2023.<\/p>\n

Bear Market Conditions<\/h2>\n

In a separate analysis<\/a>, CryptoQuant indicated that demand for Bitcoin has sharply declined, reinforcing the idea of a bear market. The report pointed to the significant drop in Bitcoin demand growth that has occurred since early October 2025.<\/p>\n

Moreover, the report highlights that institutional and large-holder demand is contracting instead of expanding. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have converted into net sellers during the fourth quarter of 2025, offloading approximately 24,000 BTC.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additionally, the number of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which typically represent ETFs and treasury firms<\/a>, is also increasing at a rate below the trend, reflecting the demand deterioration that preceded the bear market of 2022.<\/p>\n

The condition of the derivatives markets further corroborates the weakening appetite for risk. Funding rates in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest levels since December 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Historically, such declines in funding rates indicate a reduced willingness to maintain long positions, a phenomenon commonly associated with bear market conditions <\/a>rather than bullish trends.<\/p>\n

Technical analysis also reveals the deterioration of Bitcoin\u2019s price structure, with the cryptocurrency falling below its 365-day moving average\u2014a crucial long-term support level that has historically delineated bull and bear markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, historical data suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s bear market bottoms typically align with its realized price, currently estimated around $56,000. This implies a potential drawdown of approximately 55% from the recent all-time high.<\/p>\n

Intermediate support is anticipated around the $70,000 level, suggesting a relatively shallow bear market compared to previous cycles.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $87,635. This represents year-to-date losses of 10%, as well as a 30.5% gap compared to all-time highs of just above $126,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below the pivotal $90,000 mark with no signs of recovery, the prospect of a bear market is becoming increasingly relevant. Analyst Woominkyu from CryptoQuant has shared insights suggesting that the current market dynamics indicate a transition rather than just a temporary pullback. Could Bitcoin Be Shifting Into A Bear […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-65205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65205"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65205\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}