{"id":65496,"date":"2025-12-29T10:01:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T10:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=65496"},"modified":"2025-12-29T10:01:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T10:01:40","slug":"bitwise-cio-bitcoin-futures-four-year-cycle-is-being-replaced-by-a-10-year-grind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=65496","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Futures Four-Year Cycle Is Being Replaced by a \u201c10-Year Grind\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. Price explodes, sentiment overheats, the market crashes, and the clock resets.<\/p>\n<p>But as <\/p>\n<style>\n\t.cwp-coin-chart svg path {\n\t\tstroke-width: 0.65 !important;\n\t}<\/p>\n<p>\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) {\n\t\tstroke: #008868 !important;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive {\n\t\tcolor: #008868 !important;\n\t\tbackground-color: transparent !important;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive {\n\t\tborder: 1px solid #008868;\n\t\tborder-radius: 3px;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before {\n\t\tborder-bottom: 4px solid #008868 !important;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-price-holder .cwp-coin-trend-holder .cwp-trend {\n\t\tbackground-color: transparent !important;\n\t}<\/p>\n<p>\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.negative svg path:nth-of-type(2) {\n\t\tstroke: #A90C0C !important;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.negative {\n\t\tborder: 1px solid #A90C0C;\n\t\tborder-radius: 3px;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container  .cwp-coin-trend.negative {\n\t\tcolor: #A90C0C !important;\n\t\tbackground-color: transparent !important;\n\t}\n\t.cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative::before {\n\t\tborder-top: 4px solid #A90C0C !important;\n\t}\n<\/style>\n<p>\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-widget-container\" data-id=\"bitcoin\" id=\"coin_widget_id_6952517d279e2\"><\/p>\n<p>\t\t<!-- name of the coin in the text --><br \/>\n\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-widget-wrapper\" data-id=\"bitcoin\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-widget-holder \" style=\"background:#efefef;\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-name\" data-id=\"bitcoin\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-icon \"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/crypto-icons\/bitcoin.svg\" alt=\"Bitcoin\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-label \">Bitcoin<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-symbol hidden\">BTC<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price hidden\">$89,597.92<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend  positive\">2.55%<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t<!-- popup with basic info about the coin --><br \/>\n\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-wrapper \" data-id=\"bitcoin\" style=\"\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-name\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-icon\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/crypto-icons\/bitcoin.svg\" alt=\"Bitcoin\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-name\">Bitcoin<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-popup-symbol\">BTC<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-title\">Price<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-value\">$89,597.92<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend positive\">2.55% \/24h<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-volume\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-price-holder\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-volume-title\">Volume in 24h<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-volume-value\">$29.06B<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<!-- <span class=\"cwp-coin-trend-holder\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-trend\">?<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>                     --><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-chart\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-graph-title\">Price 7d<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-graph-container positive\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<?xml version=\"1.0\" encoding=\"UTF-8\" standalone=\"no\"?><svg width=\"160\" height=\"40\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><defs><lineargradient id=\"gradg_69523c56e4024\" x1=\"0%\" y1=\"0%\" x2=\"0%\" y2=\"100%\"><stop offset=\"30%\" stop-color=\"#139A18\" stop-opacity=\"0.2\"><\/stop><stop offset=\"100%\" stop-color=\"#139A18\" stop-opacity=\"0\"><\/stop><\/lineargradient><\/defs><rect width=\"100%\" height=\"100%\" fill=\"white\"><\/rect><path d=\"M0,40 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24,32.322458821301 28,29.028270339182 32,31.613523743297 36,34.490449820925 40,38.679231575942 44,40 48,37.778665377668 52,35.069481545554 56,30.345183074544 60,30.318956476511 64,29.717491654017 68,33.244522462779 72,30.875371364444 76,23.927875442033 80,29.602072574012 84,26.722808773105 88,13.276950953039 92,16.931292984286 96,22.212648015762 100,36.526137555369 104,33.080209066522 108,34.499913784087 112,33.347563199091 116,32.508795436493 120,33.586590457453 124,32.974406594245 128,31.542394201768 132,29.094484160299 136,30.386708050305 140,28.62556005009 144,27.798712697484 148,30.114890477523 152,31.491080186453 156,17.076749123 160,0 \"><\/polyline><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<script>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\/\/ Make SVG responsive\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tjQuery(document).ready(function($) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar svg = $('.cwp-graph-container svg').last();\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tif (svg.length) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar originalWidth = svg.attr('width') || '160';\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tvar originalHeight = svg.attr('height') || '40';\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tif (!svg.attr('viewBox')) {\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tsvg.attr('viewBox', '0 0 ' + originalWidth + ' ' + originalHeight);\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tsvg.removeAttr('width').removeAttr('height');\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tsvg.css({'width': '100%', 'height': '100%'});\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tsvg.attr('preserveAspectRatio', 'xMidYMid meet');\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t}\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t});\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/script><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"cwp-coin-link\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/goto\/bestwallet\" alt=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/goto\/bestwallet\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow sponspored sponsored\" class=\"cwp-coin-custom-link\" style=\"color:#ffffff; background: #e50123; padding: \"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tLearn more\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\t inches deeper into the institutional bloodstream, many <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/best-crypto-to-buy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\">Wall Street analysts <\/a>are predicting that the framework is breaking.<\/p>\n<p>That debate took center stage this week on CNBC\u2019s Crypto World, where <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/analysis\/top-crypto-stocks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\">Matt Hougan of Bitwise<\/a> and Sebastian Bea of Reserve One laid out<strong> \u201cthe new four-year cycle.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>DISCOVER: <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-crypto-to-explode\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\">20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>What Is The New Four Year Cycle For Bitcoin Futures?<\/h2>\n<div class=\"chart crypto-chart-instance\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c\" data-coin-id=\"bitcoin\">\n<div class=\"chart__header\">\n<div class=\"chart__info\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<img id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-chart__info-icon-img\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"chart__info-name\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-chart__info-name\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-symbol\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-chart__info-symbol\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-current\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-price\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-chart__info-price\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-change\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-chart__info-change\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-extra\">\n<div class=\"chart__info-label\">Market Cap<\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__info-marketcap\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-chart__info-marketcap\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__controls\">\n<div class=\"chart__controls-group\">\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--24h\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-btn-24h\">24h<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--7d\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-btn-7d\">7d<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--30d\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-btn-30d\">30d<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--1y\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-btn-1y\">1y<\/button><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"chart__button chart__button--all-time\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-btn-all-time\">All Time<\/button>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"chart__container\">\n\t\t<canvas class=\"chart__canvas\" id=\"crypto_chart_6952517d27a1c-cryptoChart\"><\/canvas>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Hougan\u2019s argument is simple. The forces driving Bitcoin today are structurally larger than miner supply shocks. <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/crypto-presales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\">Spot ETFs<\/a>, regulatory clarity, stablecoins, and tokenization are pulling Bitcoin into a slower, steadier market regime.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cI think the four-year cycle is less important now than it was in the past,\u201d said Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re not in a four-year cycle anymore. We\u2019re in a 10-year grind upward with strong returns and lower volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Real Vision CEO <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaoulGMI?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">@RaoulGMI<\/a> says the four year cycle is now a five year cycle, and the big liquidity burst is yet to come <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mI7sLmkPti\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">pic.twitter.com\/mI7sLmkPti<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Solana (@solana) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/solana\/status\/1999025880220434554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">December 11, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>That framing helps explain why Bitcoin can be down roughly 30% from its October highs near $125,000 without collapsing. According to CoinGecko, BTC volatility over the past year has actually dropped below that of Nvidia, which, honestly speaking, is quite nuts.<\/p>\n<p>The cycles for all assets are <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-1000x-crypto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\">increasingly more volatile<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">DISCOVER:\u00a0<\/span><a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-1000x-crypto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\"><span data-preserver-spaces=\"true\">Next 1000X Crypto: 10+ Crypto Tokens That Can Hit 1000x in 2025<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"cfg-chart-container\">\n<div class=\"cfg-top-content-holder\">\n<h4 class=\"cfg-chart-title\" style=\"font-family: 'Noto Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 18px; font-weight: 700; \">\n            Crypto Fear and Greed Chart        <\/h4>\n<div class=\"cfg-time-range-selector\">\n            <span data-range=\"all_time\" id=\"cfg-alltime\" class=\"cfg-alltime\">All time<\/span><br \/>\n            <span data-range=\"1y\" id=\"cfg-1y\">1y<\/span><br \/>\n            <span data-range=\"1m\" id=\"cfg-1m\">1m<\/span><br \/>\n            <span data-range=\"1w\" id=\"cfg-1w\">1w<\/span><br \/>\n            <span data-range=\"1d\" id=\"cfg-1d\">24h<\/span>\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"cfg-chart-holder\">\n<div id=\"cfg-chart-body\" class=\"cfg-chart-body\" style=\"width: 830px; height: 450px;\"><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Bea pushed back on the idea that cycles are gone entirely, arguing that humans still trade markets, yet humans are predictably irrational.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cThis cycle hasn\u2019t been that great,\u201d said Sebastian Bea, CIO of Reserve One.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf we\u2019re seeing 2x returns instead of 10x, that alone tells you the structure has changed.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Hougan added that major wirehouses only approved Bitcoin ETFs months after launch, and the average institutional allocation takes eight quarterly meetings to finalize. Translation: <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/cryptocurrency\/next-1000x-crypto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\">the slow money<\/a> is just getting started.<\/p>\n<h2>Data Check: Liquidity, Not Politics, Is Driving BTC<\/h2>\n<p>The CNBC panel was clear that Bitcoin\u2019s recent stagnation has less to do with Washington and more to do with liquidity. <a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/glassnode.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Glassnode metrics <\/a>indicate long-term holders remain largely intact despite recent drawdowns.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u201cBitcoin is a macro asset,\u201d said Sebastian Bea.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhat matters right now is liquidity, not headlines from the Hill.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>If this really is a staircase up with fewer elevator crashes, which TBH it feels like, the four-year cycle may not be dead. It may just be drowned out by something bigger and slower, and far more institutional. Exponential gains might be found away from Bitcoin in the wider crypto market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EXPLORE:<a class=\"general-link\" href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/news\/bitcoin-btc\/seeking-a-career-change-become-a-bitcoin-bounty-hunter-in-fordow-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener sponsored\"> Seeking a Career Change? Become a Bitcoin Bounty Hunter in Fordow, Iran<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways\">\n<h2 class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways__title\">Key Takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways__list\">\n<li class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways__list-item\">\n        For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. All that is dead.    <\/li>\n<li class=\"nnbtc-key-takeaways__list-item\">\n         Bea pushed back on the idea that cycles are gone entirely, arguing that humans still trade markets, yet humans are predictably irrational.\u00a0    <\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/news\/bitcoin-btc\/bitwise-cio-bitcoin-futures-four-year-cycle-is-being-replaced-by-a-10-year-grind\/\">Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Futures Four-Year Cycle Is Being Replaced by a \u201c10-Year Grind\u201d<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/99bitcoins.com\/\">99Bitcoins<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For more than a decade, Bitcoin Futures and crypto investors have leaned on the four-year halving cycle as gospel. Price explodes, sentiment overheats, the market crashes, and the clock resets. But as Bitcoin BTC $89,597.92 2.55% Bitcoin BTC Price $89,597.92 2.55% \/24h Volume in 24h $29.06B Price 7d Learn more inches deeper into the institutional [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-65496","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65496"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65496\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65496"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}