{"id":66451,"date":"2026-01-06T08:31:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T08:31:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=66451"},"modified":"2026-01-06T08:31:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T08:31:31","slug":"bitcoin-rallies-on-venezuela-oil-story-heres-whats-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=66451","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Rallies On Venezuela Oil Story: Here\u2019s What\u2019s Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bitcoin\u2019s roughly 5% jump on Jan. 5 landed on a clean, TV-friendly explanation: a shock political turn in Venezuela would \u201cunlock\u201d oil supply, push energy prices down, cool inflation, bring rate cuts forward, and lift BTC. Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen says there\u2019s a major flaw with that.<\/p>\n

The catalyst for the narrative was Venezuela\u2019s weekend drama, culminating in Nicol\u00e1s Maduro\u2019s capture<\/a> and transfer into US custody, an episode that immediately spilled into geopolitics, commodities chatter, and macro cross-asset takes.<\/p>\n

Rasmussen, posting in a thread<\/a> on X, summarized the \u201cWall Street theory\u201d as follows: \u201cVenezuela oil reserves unlocked >> lower oil prices >> lower inflation >> interest rates >> bitcoin rallies. A thread on why that\u2019s wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why This Bitcoin Theory Is Wrong<\/h2>\n

Rasmussen\u2019s central point is mechanical: if the rally is being driven by a sudden repricing of monetary policy expectations, it should show up in the probabilities traders are assigning to rate cuts. In his read, it didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

He cited a slight dip in the implied odds of a 25 basis-point cut in January 2026 immediately after the Venezuela headlines. \u201cProbability of a 25bps Rate Cut in Jan\u201926: Prior to Maduro\u2019s Capture: 16.6%. After Maduro\u2019s Capture: 16.1%,\u201d Rasmussen wrote, adding that \u201cthe probability of a 25bps rate cut this month actually fell.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even further out, he argued, the change was marginal to nonexistent. \u201cProbability of a 25bps Rate Cut in Dec\u201926: Prior to Maduro\u2019s Capture: 19.1%. After Maduro\u2019s Capture: 19.2%,\u201d he wrote, framing it as \u201cbarely moved.\u201d
\nThat\u2019s the mismatch Rasmussen wants investors to notice: a tidy causal story was making the rounds, but the pricing in the instrument closest to that story, rate expectations, was effectively unchanged.<\/p>\n

If not a Venezuela-to-Fed chain reaction, what explains the day\u2019s BTC strength? Rasmussen pointed to a cluster of themes that have been building without needing a weekend headline to justify them.<\/p>\n

First is institutional demand. Rasmussen argued that the post-2024 spot bitcoin ETF channel continues to widen, with more major platforms beginning to allocate. He cited an example of \u201c+$500m into bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 2nd,\u201d and named Morgan Stanley<\/a>, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch<\/a> as part of the distribution wave which have opened their door with the beginning of the year.<\/p>\n

Second is the regulatory backdrop. Rasmussen described a \u201cpro-crypto regulatory shift\u201d following the 2024 election, saying crypto markets are beginning to \u201cfeel the benefits\u201d as wealth managers, endowments, pensions, and sovereigns get more comfortable adopting bitcoin.<\/p>\n

Third is a broader risk-on tone tied to AI. In Rasmussen\u2019s framing, \u201cfears of an AI-bubble are settling,\u201d and investors have been \u201cpiling into risk-on assets, like tech stocks and bitcoin.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finally, he returned to policy, just not via Venezuela. \u201cDid Maduro\u2019s capture materially change short-term rate cut expectations? No. Does that mean QE is out of the picture. Also no,\u201d Rasmussen wrote, before adding: \u201cQE is just beginning. The market was\u2014and still is\u2014expecting 50bps (or more) rate cuts in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n

Overall, Rasmussen did not argue Venezuela is irrelevant. His conclusion was narrower: \u201cYes. Somewhat,\u201d he wrote when asked whether the weekend\u2019s events matter for bitcoin, before answering the bigger question whether it\u2019s the main reason for the +5% move with a flat \u201cNo. Zoom Out.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $93,750.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s roughly 5% jump on Jan. 5 landed on a clean, TV-friendly explanation: a shock political turn in Venezuela would \u201cunlock\u201d oil supply, push energy prices down, cool inflation, bring rate cuts forward, and lift BTC. Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen says there\u2019s a major flaw with that. The catalyst for the narrative was […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-66451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=66451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=66451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=66451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=66451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}