{"id":6806,"date":"2025-01-09T13:03:48","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T13:03:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=6806"},"modified":"2025-01-09T13:03:48","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T13:03:48","slug":"bitcoins-outlook-short-term-vs-long-term","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=6806","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin’s Outlook: Short-Term vs. Long-Term"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Bitcoin rounded out an exceptionally strong 2024 (up 120% yoy) with a whimper, logging the first overbought \u201csell\u201d signal on its weekly bar chart since mid-April according to the stochastic oscillator, which is an indicator of trend exhaustion. The signal suggests bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term (roughly 2-6 weeks), as other risk assets (e.g., equities) continue to pull back.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Key technical levels to watch for bitcoin:<\/p>\n

Minor resistance is at the most recent high, near $108K, above which is \u201cuncharted\u201d territory. A breakout would be a bullish development, but the momentum does not appear strong enough to generate a breakout at this time.<\/p>\n

Initial support is near $84.5K, defined by the Ichimoku cloud model, which is a trend-following model based on historical prices. Recent deterioration in our intermediate-term indicators increases the chances that a pullback will deepen further, with secondary support near $73.8K, reinforced by the rising 200-day (~40-week) moving average.<\/p>\n

You’re reading Crypto Long & Short<\/a>, our weekly newsletter featuring insights, news and analysis for the professional investor. Sign up here<\/a> to get it in your inbox every Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Despite short- and intermediate-term bearish signals, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains bullish from a technical perspective following the post-election breakout in November. The breakout to new highs marked emergence from a several-month downtrend channel, and it helped long-term momentum indicators like the monthly moving average convergence\/divergence (MACD) reaccelerate. Thus, a correction for bitcoin in Q1 should present an opportunity to add exposure ahead of another upleg in bitcoin later in 2025.<\/p>\n

Ethereum: resistance near $4000 is a hurdle for early 2025<\/p>\n

Like bitcoin, ether has flashed an overbought \u201csell\u201d signal, which comes after a rejection at important resistance near $4000. The \u201csell\u201d signal has intermediate-term implications, supporting a corrective phase over the next couple of months. Ether also has initial support at the daily Ichimoku cloud model, near $3226, above which it has stabilized. We expect a correction in Q1 to lead to a breakdown and test of the 200-day (40-week) moving average. However, our long-term indicators still point higher, albeit less convincingly, compared to bitcoin. A breakout above the $4000 level would likely result in improved long-term metrics like the monthly MACD.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Bitcoin vs. ether: 2024 outperformance by bitcoin gives way to volatility<\/p>\n

In 2024, bitcoin outperformed ether by 74%, a trend that can be clearly seen in the bitcoin\/ether ratio. Since early November, relative performance has become more fickle between the two largest cryptocurrencies, evidenced by the wide trading range that has taken hold of the ratio.<\/p>\n

During a crypto market correction, bitcoin normally outperforms ether since it is usually deemed as \u201csafer.\u201d However, all cryptocurrencies are likely to trade lower in absolute terms when risk assets are undergoing a correction, noting that correlations tend to go up when markets go down. Nevertheless, a bullish long-term outlook suggests that Q1 volatility may present an opportunity to add exposure with a more favorable risk\/reward profile, ideally waiting for the intermediate-term indicators to turn up again.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin rounded out an exceptionally strong 2024 (up 120% yoy) with a whimper, logging the first overbought \u201csell\u201d signal on its weekly bar chart since mid-April according to the stochastic oscillator, which is an indicator of trend exhaustion. The signal suggests bitcoin will remain range-bound, at least in the short term (roughly 2-6 weeks), as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-6806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6806\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}