{"id":68951,"date":"2026-01-23T00:31:34","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T00:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=68951"},"modified":"2026-01-23T00:31:34","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T00:31:34","slug":"bitcoin-should-wait-on-quantum-fixes-says-epoch-ventures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/?p=68951","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Should Wait On Quantum Fixes, Says Epoch Ventures"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Epoch Ventures founder Erik Yakes is urging bitcoin investors and protocol watchers to slow down on quantum \u201cpanic\u201d and resist premature upgrades, arguing that the practical threat to Bitcoin\u2019s cryptography remains unproven and that moving too early could lock the network into inefficient signature schemes for years.<\/p>\n

In a section on quantum risk in his 2026 Bitcoin Ecosystem report, Yakes framed the late-2025 flare-up in quantum anxiety<\/a> as something closer to a behavioral event than a technical one. He wrote that \u201ca focus on quantum computing risks to bitcoin\u2019s underlying cryptography potentially drove an institutional investor sell-off,\u201d and attributed that reaction to \u201closs aversion, herd mentality, and availability.\u201d The core of his argument is not that quantum computing is irrelevant, but that the market\u2019s implied timeline<\/a> is being built on expectations rather than observable progress.<\/p>\n

At the center of the debate is \u201cNeven\u2019s law,\u201d the idea that quantum computational power grows at a doubly exponential rate relative to classical computing, sometimes translated into a claim that the clock to break Bitcoin\u2019s cryptography could be \u201cas short as 5 years.\u201d Yakes pushed back on treating that as an empirical trajectory. He compared it to Moore\u2019s law, but drew a sharp distinction: \u201cMoore\u2019s law was an observation. Neven\u2019s law is not an observation because logical qubits are not increasing at such a rate. Neven\u2019s law is an expectation of experts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yakes\u2019 skepticism is anchored in what he characterizes as the gap between lab metrics and real-world cryptographic capability. \u201cToday, quantum computers have not observably factored a number greater than 15,\u201d he wrote, arguing that the industry has yet to demonstrate the kind of scaling evidence that would make the threat tangible to Bitcoin. Progress, in his view, has been largely confined to \u201cphysical (not logical) qubits\u201d and declining error rates, without translating into the logical-qubit reliability needed for meaningful factorization. Rising physical qubits and lower error rates are not increasing logical qubits and factorization,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He also highlighted a compounding problem that could limit practical breakthroughs even if headline qubit counts climb: \u201ca potentially existential issue for quantum computing is that error rates scale exponentially with the number of qubits.\u201d If that relationship persists, Yakes suggested, quantum systems may not convert theoretical scaling into usable cryptographic attacks. He went further, arguing that in a world where algorithmic improvements and classical hardware continue to advance, \u201cit may even be more likely that classical computers, through Moore\u2019s law and algorithm improvements, break the cryptography used by Bitcoin before quantum computers do.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Could Pay A High Price If It Rushes Quantum Signatures<\/h2>\n

Where Yakes becomes most concrete is in describing the trade-offs of \u201cquantum-resistant\u201d mitigation. He doesn\u2019t argue the ecosystem lacks candidate solutions, he argues the network should be careful about choosing the wrong one too early. \u201cQuantum-resistant signature algorithms exist \u2014 implementing one of them is not the issue,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe issue is that they\u2019re all too large for Bitcoin and would consume block space, thereby lowering transaction throughput on the network. New signatures emerging today are being tested and are increasingly data-efficient.\u201d<\/p>\n

That sizing problem is central to his warning about premature action. In a network where block space is scarce and transaction throughput is a persistent constraint, large signature schemes don\u2019t just change security posture; they reshape the economics of using the chain. Yakes called out what he sees as the \u201cworst-case scenario\u201d for quantum risk planning: not a sudden cryptographic collapse, but a rushed upgrade that hard-codes an avoidable performance penalty.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe worst-case scenario we see for quantum risk is that a solution is implemented prematurely, with an exponentially lower efficiency trade-off had we waited longer before implementing,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

Yakes pointed to existing research<\/a> and mitigation pathways that could buy time if quantum progress suddenly accelerates. He cited Chaincode Labs\u2019 work recommending \u201ca 2-year contingency plan and a 7-year comprehensive plan,\u201d and described a near-term lever tied to modern Bitcoin script and address design.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the short-term contingency plan, we know that taproot address types can make commitments to spend before the public key is revealed \u2014 thus hiding the public key from a quantum computer and protecting quantum-vulnerable public keys,\u201d he wrote. \u201cBasically, modern address types have a hidden form of quantum resistance that can be unlocked, and this could be used if quantum factorization suddenly grows exponentially.\u201d<\/p>\n

The harder question, in his telling, is governance and coordination. Bitcoin\u2019s bar for consensus is deliberately high<\/a>, and \u201cachieving bitcoin consensus for improvement proposals is very challenging,\u201d Yakes noted, emphasizing the ecosystem\u2019s history of adopting soft forks. If an existential threat materialized, he expects a broader stakeholder alignment could emerge, yet he still flags the risk that any adopted signature transition \u201cwould materially decrease the efficiency of the blockchain,\u201d pointing to ongoing work by \u201cthe BIP360 team\u201d on such proposals.<\/p>\n

For investors, Yakes\u2019 bottom line is to triage: quantum is worth understanding, but not worth displacing more immediate risks in a \u201cgeopolitical environment with monetary commodities and fiat currencies.\u201d \u201cWe do not view quantum computing as a primary risk for the reasons above,\u201d he wrote. \u201cIf you\u2019re reducing your allocation because of quantum risk, you\u2019re being driven by behavioral bias and failing to see the benefits of a bitcoin allocation on net.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $90,046.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Epoch Ventures founder Erik Yakes is urging bitcoin investors and protocol watchers to slow down on quantum \u201cpanic\u201d and resist premature upgrades, arguing that the practical threat to Bitcoin\u2019s cryptography remains unproven and that moving too early could lock the network into inefficient signature schemes for years. In a section on quantum risk in his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3,4,5],"class_list":["post-68951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-crypto","tag-doge","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=68951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68951\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=68951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=68951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dogewisperer.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=68951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}